Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Cold Wrather Fan]

From NWS BHM
The forecast becomes more interesting as we approach the latter
portion of next week as more moisture moves across the area during
the day Thursday and persists through much of the day on Friday.
Meanwhile, colder air is expected to filter into the area from
the northwest with freezing temperatures possible along and
northwest of Interstate 59 on Thursday morning followed by
potentially freezing temperatures generally to the northwest of
the Interstate 85 corridor. As with recent forecasts, confidence
remains quite low during this time frame with poor consistency and
continuity between model families and within ensemble members.
The best advice is to check back for later updates for this period
of the forecast as we evaluate additional modeling and work to
establish better trends and consistency within the model families
and ensemble members.

 

[accu35]

Not only a winter storm threat but a long duration of it to. Can you imagine getting a massive Snow/Ice storm in the southeast while the Siberia cold plunge keeps dropping further deep south while we are still storming

 

[GaStorm]

? View attachment 71230

Found this on the CPC site explaining their thoughts on the heavy snow risk.

A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with an increasing chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the front by Feb 12. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. A negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. along with subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic supports a continued risk of winter weather across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The week-2 analog tools (Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means) imply this outcome with elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation for these areas. Based on these factors, a likely outbreak of Arctic Air, and 24-hour precipitation amounts of a 0.25 inch or more, liquid equivalent, from the ensemble means at varying daily intervals, a slight risk of heavy snow (2 to 4 inches, or greater) is posted for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic.

 

[GaStorm]

Lots of blue on this map!

 

[accu35]

Found this on the CPC site explaining their thoughts on the heavy snow risk.

A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with an increasing chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the front by Feb 12. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. A negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. along with subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic supports a continued risk of winter weather across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The week-2 analog tools (Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means) imply this outcome with elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation for these areas. Based on these factors, a likely outbreak of Arctic Air, and 24-hour precipitation amounts of a 0.25 inch or more, liquid equivalent, from the ensemble means at varying daily intervals, a slight risk of heavy snow (2 to 4 inches, or greater) is posted for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic.

I was reading this at first thinking it was for areas west of yall. Let me find one for us deep southerns

 

[GaStorm]

Lots of blue on this map!

 

[deltadog03]

**Valid for FRI 00z**
look how much we lost the good cold push from yesterdays run, last nights run to today. Good news the high looks about as strong, just need the TPV to be further SE....VERY workable
12z
00z
12z today

 

[Chazwin]

Not only a winter storm threat but a long duration of it to. Can you imagine getting a massive Snow/Ice storm in the southeast while the Siberia cold plunge keeps dropping further deep south while we are still storming

That’s basically what happened with the February 1996 storm... for the CLT area we had freezing rain with heavy icing all day on the 2nd, then in the evening we had that great 2-3 hour burst of sleet that has thunder for much of it and temperatures dropped from the low 30s to the low 20s almost instantly... puddles of water in my yard froze instantly and got a couple inches of sleet on top of them. Then a light snow (dandruff size) started to fall that continued for about the next 36 hours. CLT( at the airport) went above freezing for just a couple of hours in the afternoon during the height of the of the freezing rain on the 2nd... then dropped back below freezing and didn’t get back above until the afternoon of the 6th. Most of that time was below 25 as well.

 

[iGRXY]

Still think if you're east of the apps in the CAD regions, you are probably in the best spot for a winter storm. Problem is I fear it'll be ICE instead of snow right now. Good news is energy in Canada has trended SE most of the winter and the SER has been muted and we are right in the time frame where models generally have tried to flex it.

 

[Chazwin]

**Valid for FRI 00z**
look how much we lost the good cold push from yesterdays run, last nights run to today. Good news the high looks about as strong, just need the TPV to be further SE....VERY workable
12z
00z
12z today

View attachment 71244View attachment 71245View attachment 71246

It looks like though that some CAD is trying to set up for NC and upstate SC. That could be very important with the amount of snowpack over the NE now

 

[iGRXY]

It looks like though that some CAD is trying to set up for NC and upstate SC. That be very important with the amount of snowpack over the NE now

That's what I think would happen if we flex the ridge on the east coast like we saw today. CAD would show up and with the amount of snow pack to our north I think it would be a very bad ice storm. But hopefully we will trend back to the snow storm with the TPV getting out ahead.

 

[Jessy89]

If it could be less amped the warm nose wouldn’t be there as much


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Chazwin]

That's what I think would happen if we flex the ridge on the east coast like we saw today. CAD would show up and with the amount of snow pack to our north I think it would be a very bad ice storm. But hopefully we will trend back to the snow storm with the TPV getting out ahead.

Even with the ice storm look, it has the look of one that could be an Ice/Sleet changing snow type scenario. The cold push from the NW is still there and if CAD developed, with the snowpack up north, you would think it would be fairly strong and would set things up for a transfer to a coastal pretty far south.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[iGRXY]

Even with the ice storm look, it has the look of one that could be an Ice/Sleet changing snow type scenario. The cold push from the NW is still there and if CAD developed, with the snowpack up north, you would think it would be fairly strong and would set things up for a transfer to a coastal pretty far south.

It definitely could be a 2 day type storm with the first 2/3 being a lot of ICE and the back 1/3 being snow. Something like a 3/4 inch - 1" type ice accrual with 2-5" backend snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How do I screw this up

 

[KyloG]

How do I screw this up View attachment 71257View attachment 71258

Its near impossible....or is it. ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS looks even worse

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

lol

 

[BelmontWX79]

Well the Kiss My A$$ model aka The Korean is on board! The southern half of these accumulations is mostly ice. Not really taking this seriously I just think its crazy all the model data there is now. Back when I first started weather model nerding all we had was the NGM, ETA, the Aviation, maybe the GEM, and the EURO. Back then the EURO really was king but it was only ran at 12Z and was limited to 500mb heights, 850Temp winds, and MSLP unless you had a lot of extra cash. Not really sure what we used to do waiting 12 hours between model runs. Anyways I'm just dating myself back to the discussion...