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Pattern February Discussion

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packfan98 said:
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E15 is the big dog this time w/a SC sleet special...LOL!


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Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
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If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
 
pcbjr said:
or skewered? LOL

although, being out of the realm of any winter weather this late and this far down here, the 18Z does give me some nice cold (until tomorrow's runs)
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Gainesville has had about the coldest anomalies in the 11-15 in the entire US for the last 3 GFS runs fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
Gainesville has had about the coldest anomalies in the 11-15 in the entire US for the last 3 GFS runs fwiw.
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Yup and enjoying the eye candy (and the past week!) - it is a unique location
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
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My guesses:
1) Goofy is the American model and they prefer to be pro-American weather modelwise.
2) It goes out 16 days 4 times a day.
 
Pretty good agreement for a nice cold shot coming late next week into the next weekend the euro is the least emphatic about it. Regardless it will be a quick in and out shot of cold with the pacific jet once again flooding the nation with mild air.
 
Based from the EPS, tonight's 0z GFS run will be fun after the first system.

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SD said:
No this has been a 100% nina winter with the cold in the NW and warm east
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I thought Niñas brought a lot of cold and dry NW flow to the East? With the outside chance of brutal cold( single digit lows for most of upper SE)? I thought I heard that going into this winter
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
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He rarely relies on the GFS. You will almost always see him call the Euro the "more reliable" model....this is the case until it shows something he doesn't want to discuss at the time, then he will refer to whatever model fits his thinking.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

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Lawd have mercy....smh
 
Tarheel1 said:
I thought Niñas brought a lot of cold and dry NW flow to the East? With the outside chance of brutal cold( single digit lows for most of upper SE)? I thought I heard that going into this winter
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Well it did for the 10 days or so the pacific cooperated but generally I would say a nina favors the +EPO/-PNA couplet with a warm east
 
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