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Pattern February Discussion

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There is some differences between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro. I'm not too sure about that 18z run.

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Storm5 said:
always done if he scores Friday we ban him

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Yep. I think far northern nc and southern VA might do ok Friday morning to at least see a little wet snow falling. Above freezing surface probably kills much if any accumulation. Down this way warm nose kills the day

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The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

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It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
 
Shawn said:
No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
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Agree - but the big problem is that the Euro never seems to give much daily hope - it's problem is that it's actually realistic (vs the GFS op), and ergo, very seldom gives a reason to crack a cold one .. but when it does ... YUP!
 
pcbjr said:
Agree - but the big problem is that the Euro never seems to give much daily hope - it's problem is that it's actually realistic (vs the GFS op), and ergo, very seldom gives a reason to crack a cold one .. but when it does ... YUP!
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AND it runs 2 times versus 4 times a day. So I get how we see so many "radical changes" from the GFS. The Euro would have more wild looks if we had 4 cracks a day at it too.
 
Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
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It just depends with on the model. The Euro has been over performing the GFS. If the GFS was over performing the Euro, I'd go with the GFS as the primary model. With this setup, the Euro has been good. This is why I compare model runs to determine which model is over performing. Sometimes the GFS does over perform the Euro.

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Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
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Fact! Agree 100%.......... I think I seen a tweet from Ryan Maue today that we may finally get some funding for US models......

  1. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    But w/focus on 4D-Var, faster computers & hopefully support by White House & Congress = Make America's
    1f1fa-1f1f8.png
    Weather Models Great (Finally)

    2 replies5 retweets20 likes

  2. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    Decisions made by gov't agency employees consigned U.S. weather enterprise to third rate methods, junk computers & a lost decade.

    2 replies7 retweets15 likes

  3. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    With how much our economy/GDP is affected by weather, it's baffling to me why American weather models aren't the best ... actually it's not.

    3 replies2 retweets7 likes

  4. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    Only in private sector could I show definitively thru @weatherbell the value of ECMWF products ... taking advantage of Twitter to show maps

    2 replies2 retweets5 likes
 
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