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Pattern February Discussion

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I just looked over the 12z Euro OP. The second system is still there. That HP that comes down at hrs 210-222 comes down too fast and it squishies the 2nd system and makes it dissipate. That energy you see in the Pacific NW at hr 180 on the 12z Euro OP is the second system as the first system pulls to the NE it pulls the energy to the SW. We'll see what the ensemble showes later.

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only 4 members are excited . this is through day 11
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EPS sucks for the most part through Day 10. I mean, there are a couple storm members in the SE. But there is one member that is skewing the mean.
 
I'm not that familiar with the MJO, I'm more of a model analyzer as y'all can tell from my posts. Lol. I mean we'll probably have another warm up after the 13th-15th or so then it will get cold again latter half of Feb. into March. The pattern we've been in this winter, I can see that happening.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm not that familiar with the MJO, I'm more of a model analyzer as y'all can tell from my posts. Lol. I mean we'll probably have another warm up after the 13th-15th or so then it will get cold again latter half of Feb. into March. The pattern we've been in this winter, I can see that happening.

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You do understand how important things like the MJO, teleconnections, strat, etc are to a forecast, right?
 
DaculaWeather said:
You do understand how important things like the MJO, teleconnections, strat, etc are to a forecast, right?
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Yes, those are part of making a forecast. I make my forecasts by teleconnections, wind patterns, 500mb heights, and model analyzing.

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I'm more of that "old school" weather forecaster (I'm not a old man though lol) I look for patterns and go from there and changes in modeling. My style in weather forecasting is different than the typical standard forecasting.

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