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Pattern February Discussion

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Oh sooo close and not into the fantasy realm (though definitely knockin' on the fantasy door)

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Hey Phil, don't forget you need to give me some song ideas for tonight's runs. Lol.

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Shawn said:
So Eric, are you saying while SSWE may happen, it doesn't mean the United States would see the possible cold effects since there is a lagg time?
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To an extent yes, I'm also saying that it may not get cold (esp right away) because there are other continents that it could get dumped into (& this usually happens in -ENSO/neutral events). Also keep in mind as I mentioned earlier that I was fortunate the MJO had been suppressed in December and January this winter, if we get a formidable MJO pulse over the next several weeks, that could be a legitimate threat to messing w/ my February forecast. It's virtually impossible to pinpoint the source, longevity, and amplitude of intraseasonal variability several months in advance, much less even a week or two, hence it's entirely possible that this could put a wrench in my ideas... I'm going to be watching it closely for sure.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To an extent yes, I'm also saying that it may not get cold (esp right away) because there are other continents that it could get dumped into (& this usually happens in -ENSO/neutral events). Also keep in mind as I mentioned earlier that I was fortunate the MJO had been suppressed in December and January this winter, if we get a formidable MJO pulse over the next several weeks, that could be a legitimate threat to messing w/ my February forecast. It's virtually impossible to pinpoint the source, longevity, and amplitude of intraseasonal variability several months in advance, much less even a week or two, hence it's entirely possible that this could put a wrench in my ideas... I'm going to be watching it closely for sure.
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Hey Webb - I had it but lost it - where can I find your Feb forecast again? Thanks, Man! Phil
 
Euro doesn't want any part of that backend snow.
 
Did someone say spring is coming...Where can I find my winter severe wx?


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Like I said if we get past Super Bowl Sunday and it's still around then I will start praying that for a rarity and timing playing out perfect ain't got anything else to lose this winter
 
I just looked over the 12z Euro OP. The second system is still there. That HP that comes down at hrs 210-222 comes down too fast and it squishies the 2nd system and makes it dissipate. That energy you see in the Pacific NW at hr 180 on the 12z Euro OP is the second system as the first system pulls to the NE it pulls the energy to the SW. We'll see what the ensemble showes later.

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