• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
Cmc has almost the same look at almost the same time as the gfs no?
I only know the basics of model watching so someone correct me if I'm wrong.
1be9d53d9fbfc5503fe11aeeae903c08.jpg


211192af3e2e23a9b30cd5216ca4ade4.jpg


e34b86c9de160a7495e4f6710e7f198f.jpg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
DaculaWeather said:
At this point, this is a non-winter storm with cold chasing moisture.
Click to expand...
What's funny is this would be almost one month after our last winter storm on 1/7. If it does slow down we would be in the game but that is too much to ask for with the lack of blocking lately.
 
I said it earlier, it has potential. But NORTHGAWINTER been all over this one for sure
 
Still gonna need that solution to be consistent and also need it to pump those breaks and also get that low a little further south before cutting for the backside snow to be a real impact setup for chunk of MS/AL/GA areas
 
ATLwxfan said:
The Sasquatch of weather phenomena


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Backside events due happen like Christmas 2011 but... very true rare and models can hold onto that up till the 24 hours but then you still have to watch the actual live feedback to confirm if it will happen, man it's during a work week though so let's hope it doesn't happen during any commute hours it would SUCK especially since the last partial bust and no one will pay attention to a already hard to verify event
 
If you look at the 06z GFS again, the timing is slower than it's 12z run with that second system. Of course, the 06z is older data but it's still data from today.

It should not cut cause the air flow won't allow that from the first system, not unless that second system is faster following the first system. It needs to slow down some but not too much. If it slows too much, it would probably warm up, and then that second system will get kicked out. We don't want that if we want snow.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
hould not cut cause the air flow won't allow that from the first system, not unless that second system is faster following the first system. It needs to slow down some but not too much. If it slows too much, it would probably warm up, and then that second system will get kicked out. We don't want that if we want snow.
Click to expand...

I mean we are still 9 days out I'll get really interested on Sunday if this is still showing and my Falcons win the Super Bowl, but what we looking for about 18 hour slow down of that 2nd system to get it to produce a good storm sounds about right IMO
 
What could go wrong? 16 day!! GEFS members, not even a fantasy monster in the Deep South:

gefs_snow_ens_nc_65.png
 
Although I wasn't terribly impressed w/ the current attempt at SSWE &/or polar vortex split, I'm definitely starting to pay more attention to week 2-3 as a Pacific MJO pulse (phase 6-7) will attempt to couple w/ quasi-autonomous extratropical stratospheric variability and north Pacific retrogression to add some serious reinforcement to the quasi-sationary planetary wave configuration. This anomalous rossby wave juxtaposition is often characterized by an unusually deep Aleutian low-Scandinavian ridge couplet, and tends to be a precursor to major sudden stratospheric warming events. Essentially, this Pacific MJO pulse will be adding insult to injury here via enhancement of wave-1 forcing (i.e. meaning that polar vortex displacement), and due to its modulation of the placement, intensity, and timing of extratropical rossby wave trains, a healthy MJO pulse over the Pacific tends to be a vital element to generating SSWEs. In fact, since 1979, > 50% of SSWEs have occurred only in phase 6-7 of the MJO Even if we observe an SSWE, that doesn't necessarily guarantee colder/stormier weather in the southeastern US or North America for that matter. The stratospheric anomalies still need time to down well into the troposphere and any cold air associated w/ this major PV disruption could just as easily be dumped over Asia, Europe, or Africa. It should also be interesting to watch how the Equatorial Pacific responds to this MJO pulse, it's timing wrt the seasonal cycle is fairly optimal, although having a big pulse in March is even better to lead to a major reshuffling of ENSO.

Geopotential-Height-500mb-N-hem-SSWE-1024x349.png


eps_z500a_168h_nh_5-1024x768.png



ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
 
It's also quite possible that this Pacific MJO pulse could end up stronger than modeled... Models have a COD/dampening bias w/ the MJO in the medium-long range.
From Kim et al (2014) comparing the CFS & EPS suites and their MJO forecasts against observations w/ initialization in different phases...
With the exception of the CFSv2 in the Pacific, both model suites tend to underestimate MJO amplitude @ all leads
Screen-Shot-2017-01-31-at-1.16.15-PM-1024x721.png
 
Stormlover said:
is your opinion that that run wasn't an improvement? don't see how you can say that
Click to expand...
I think if I may his opinion was cold chasing moisture setup... the scariest of winter type setups to try and actually verify and also bring anything over a inch or so if it even does... so meh reaction need it to be slow down and track a little further south and then have everything time perfect for storm to be a legit threat
 
So Eric, are you saying while SSWE may happen, it doesn't mean the United States would see the possible cold effects since there is a lagg time?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top