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Pattern February Discussion

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Storm5 said:
backside rain changing to snow . it is what it is

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The thing no one ever wants to count on in the SE for snow, but a better cold press on that one for sure but would prefer the low to be about 100 mile further south then what that shown and a little slower to maximum that look for parts of the SE
 
many ensemble members have this same look with one final piece of energy diving into the trough
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which leads to rain changing snow . never a good setup or combination but it might be all we can hope for
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Yeah, it's almost that time of the year again for the deep south... It may be more active than usual (or compared to the last several years) given the NINA/WQBO and the propensity for the storm track to become focused over the TN/OH valley and Great Lakes in February and March in this background state...
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I think I may just do a video...that low coming after the cutter is coming in way too fast. That was supposed to be our winter storm 10th-11th.

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I don't think I've ever seen a rain changing to snow type setup ever work for our area, except for I guess the Christmas 2010 storm and I was in gatlinburg for that. I'd love for it to come to fruition, but most of the times if it even does changeover, it's nothing more than an hour or two and amounte to nothing, but maybe this will be thus one time it works!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, it's almost that time of the year again for the deep south... It may be more active than usual (or compared to the last several years) given the NINA/WQBO and the propensity for the storm track to become focused over the TN/OH valley and Great Lakes in February and March in this background state...
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That's some pretty low probabilities isn't it ? 0.40% probability in AL of a tornado within 25 miles.
 
well our only hope is that the gefs and eps are right with the mjo progression. both truck it into phase 8 in a few weeks . # hope

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SoutheastRidge said:
That's some pretty low probabilities isn't it ? 0.40% probability in AL of a tornado within 25 miles.
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Yes, that seems reasonable given these are daily tornado probabilities within 25 miles of a given location. Over the course of a week, the cumulative probability is ~ 3 %, and for the entire month of March it's ~ 15% (~ 1 every 6-7 years) for a tornado within 25 miles of a location in north-central Alabama. For any severe weather (hail, wind, tornado), the daily probabilities are ~ 2 %, and for the entire month of March ~ 70% in north-central AL.
 
We have had plenty of storms in March but after Feb 25th i generally lose interest. Just never seem to work out to much after that. March 1 2009 was a good one in my area
 
12z CMC has that 2nd system slowing down slightly at 174-180 but starts picking speed up as the first system goes up to Canada.

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