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Pattern February Discussion

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Shawn said:
Here's after that second wave. What the..?

wtf.png
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Rain with that 540? It must be showing real warm above ....
 
GaWx said:
Shawn,
I know you may be thinking about the 18Z GFS' proposed wave #3 being during primetime for Columbia!
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Yeah, that would be good for a chunk of people if it were to get going a bit sooner. Did you take a look at the energy?
 
GaWx said:
So, are we going to have a wave #3 to track for 2/10-1??
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Larry, don't think we could handle a 3rd rain storm out of this pattern! It would be mass hysteria and pandemonium
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, don't think we could handle a 3rd rain storm out of this pattern! It would be mass hysteria and pandemonium
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Mack,
You know there is but one "rainstorm" and he/she left years ago for parts unknown. ;)

Edit: the poster "rainstorm" may be before Mack's time on wx BB's.
 
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Shawn said:
Yeah, that would be good for a chunk of people if it were to get going a bit sooner. Did you take a look at the energy?
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Oh yes. Of course it may just be Goofy playing around. OTOH, it is primetime climo for a Miller A crossing FL. So, we need to monitor this period since there's a lot of energy flying around along with a nice +PNA and potential cold air to the north.
 
That system showing up in the 10th-11th...never mind I better not say no further lol.

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accu35 said:
540 line that south, would that be more than just rain for AL/GA?
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Exactly the same question I raised a few posts back - I'm mobile and can't pull stuff up right now to look, and then have to Skype a client in Tokyo, Japan, in a while, but I'm wondering what 850's and surface temps are modeled to look like then ...
 
pcbjr said:
Exactly the same question I raised a few posts back - I'm mobile and can't pull stuff up right now to look, and then have to Skype a client in Tokyo, Japan, in a while, but I'm wondering what 850's and surface temps are modeled to look like then ...
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gfs_T850_seus_44.png
gfs_T2m_seus_44.png
Here is the skew-T for the center of the county I am in at 264.
gfs_2017013018_264_34.25--84.0.png
 
there are MANY cutters on the 18z gfs for the second and possible 3rd wave . MANY


there are about 7 or 8 that have a more miller A type look . most are too warm lol
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I think I can see why the 3rd wave if it were to come to fruition is very close to being something that would never be seen again if it worked out. There is tons of energy in Florida with this one at the upper levels. Imagine that working early.

But again the GFS is completely on its own. Every other model is suggesting the worst case scenario possible with the future pattern that would end winter.
 
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