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Pattern February Discussion

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I'm going to go over last night's Euro runs and put some more thoughts out on the table. There is till plenty of time for this storm to play out. It's not even before the 192 hr.

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I will be at Great Wolf Lodge in Charlotte Sun and Mon. Forecast of 40's and rain Sunday. It needs to get colder please.
 
Remember Friday's 18z run of the GFS? it showed a winter event for the SE and now it shows very little in the way of winter weather across the SE. The next system will be opposite. That GFS will trick ya now. Lol.

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The 6z GFS track would technically be good for North Alabama/North Georgia/upstate SC and north but the overall setup completely sucks and it wouldn't matter if it was early January if this stayed the setup. A HP is there but its retreating and the Pacific is busy flooding warm air into most of the US. Even if a wedge were more locked in, this would be ice.

The Pacific Ocean's strength will have to have been overestimated for starters in this one.
 
December and January temperature verification against my winter forecast w/ one of my college meteorology buddies we released back on the first of December. Not too shabby thus far, far from perfect certainly, but it's pretty good especially when you look at what other forecasters had out for the same period...
There's definitely a legitimate possibility that February could end up even warmer nationwide than what we forecasted, except for perhaps the southeastern US because i don't think we could have made a warmer forecast down there lol... The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies likely have the best shot to be below normal in February.

Dec-Jan-temp-outlook-2016-17-winter-forecast-1024x718.jpg


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http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Remember Friday's 18z run of the GFS? it showed a winter event for the SE and now it shows very little in the way of winter weather across the SE. The next system will be opposite. That GFS will trick ya now. Lol.

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In my experiences with LR systems, if we are going to see a south trend there must be some NE confluence. Otherwise, it will trend NW with each model run. The PNA is going more positive with time. That will help keep the Pacific at bay, but the NAO will have to cooperate if we are to have a board-wide event. I really like the path of the 06z storm. The mountains will cash-in with this one.... unless, of course, it turns out to be a cutter.
 
Dang, Webber just nailing the coffin shut. Props on the forecast so far, tho.

Do you think we have any shot at any decent winters in the next 5 years or so? There is this whole solar min thing that's getting some hype, but that may be well overrated.
 
Webber, what are your thoughts on temps for the spring ( march-may) ? Atlanta has had 12 straight months of AN temps. Is there any end in sight or will this warmth last forever ?
 
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