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Pattern February Discussion

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pcbjr said:
Webb - Fabulous!
Phil
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Thanks!
ForsythSnow said:
For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.
gfs_T2m_seus_40.png

At 850, it may be questionable for eastern North Carolina, but not Georgia and Alabama. The temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s through the run.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png

Only model showing 50s and 60s is the CMC, and we know how it does at 240.
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The Euro is considerably warmer than either the GFS or CMC. Definitely would be more concerned about severe wx and thunderstorms than wintry wx if this even came close to panning out...
ecmwf_t2m_se_37-1024x768.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
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even the 00z euro was in the 60s. still lots of time no doubt. just a little discouraging

00z euro
6e08acc18e59b72360dc68a9acd0dfe0.jpg


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Webberweather53 said:
Thanks!



The Euro is considerably warmer than either the GFS or CMC. Definitely would be more concerned about severe wx and thunderstorms than wintry wx if this even came close to panning out...
ecmwf_t2m_se_37-1024x768.png
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Oh, I don't have access to the Euro surface temperatures, so I couldn't see how everyone was getting 50s and 60s. Thanks for clearing that up!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
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Hopefully we can get a better look today. Still way way out there.
 
we need the next two weeks to work out . The second half of February isn't looking good ATM

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Storm5 said:
we need the next two weeks to work out . The second half of February isn't looking good ATM

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Next two weeks aren't even looking that good. I know temps shouldn't be a issue this far out but the GFS doesn't have anything close to frozen except for the upper south on Super Bowl Sunday. Looks more like a cool March than a February.
 
At least the 06z gefs was an improvement over the overnight runs..... still has the system, anything from a cutter, apps runner to just offshore but the mean lp placement is more offshore and the mean snow total much higher than the 0z gefs. However, that is skewed somewhat by about 4 or 5 big dogs and unfortunately mostly TN and the Carolina's. The silver lining is there still is a chance this can work in our favor however slim it may be.
 
Just glossing over various runs and "snowfall/ice maps" from recent runs, looks like the storm track and temps screw a lot of us in the SE. If it's a good track, it's rain. If it's cold air close by, it cuts inland.
 
That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!

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The track sucks for many of us in GA, SC, likely NC. No cold in sight to help TN/AL/MS on the backend. Even if there was a strong wedge in place, we'd end up with a mess of an ice/sleet event for many.
 
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