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Pattern February Discussion

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The 0Z GEFS mildly suggests a Miller A crossing FL 2/8-9, but cold is lacking to the north.
 
Yeah models are having issues. That's why we must focus on large scale trends and not let our guard up.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah like maybe a summer pattern when every day is 90 degrees for 3 months straight ?
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They tend to do better in strong La Niña/el Niño. They do better during established patterns. They do better when the continental ocean ssts are closer to average. They tend to do better when mjo is in the circle. During oscillanic continuity.

None of which we have going into the next week.
 
bouncycorn said:
They tend to do better in strong La Niña/el Niño. They do better during established patterns. They do better when the continental ocean ssts are closer to average. They tend to do better when mjo is in the circle. During oscillanic continuity.

None of which we have going into the next week.
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Do you think in general the models have more problems in the winter than during the summer ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Do the models ever NOT have issues ?
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The GFS has had a strong cold bias so far this winter, especially during the 11-15. Time after time a cold 11-15 has verified much warmer. However, that has not been the case for the usually warmer EPS. That's why I love to see cold EPS 11-15's.
 
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I'd like to see that high that I circled to the south and west to help force some colder air in. Which it should be more south and west because normally after a system like that, a high pressure would move in after the low pushes off to the NE.
edea00343b6270c67c53a98338d1a530.jpg


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Maybe I'll end up eating my words, but the 0Z Euro as of hour 168 doesn't look encouraging vs the 0Z GFS nor the 12Z Euro.
 
Great look on the 6z GFS for a Classic Miller A on the 8th...... with no cold air. Tons of rain for everyone. What a waste of a setup.
 
dissapointing overnight runs for the day 8-10 system on the ops and ensembles. sure looks like we will have a system but cold air is gonna be a massive massive problem

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I agree Charlie...Not a good set of runs since the 18z GFS. Very little hope at this pt b/c of what appears to be a lack of cold air.


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Liking the Feb 14th timeframe! Everything until then looks to be rain sadly at this point!
 
whatalife said:
I agree Charlie...Not a good set of runs since the 18z GFS. Very little hope at this pt b/c of what appears to be a lack of cold air.


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At least we know 12Z will be different! As far as cold air, it is several degrees too warm, but at least it isn't that far off. If the models give us some colder air, we will be seeing great model runs.
 
Storm5 said:
50s and 60s is far off

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For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.
gfs_T2m_seus_40.png

At 850, it may be questionable for eastern North Carolina, but not Georgia and Alabama. The temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s through the run.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png

Only model showing 50s and 60s is the CMC, and we know how it does at 240.
 
WXinCanton said:
Temps aren't even close. I understand it is a ways out there, but damn, it's not even close.
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I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
 
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