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Pattern February Discussion

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pcbjr said:
Maybe I'm totally missing something but I see a bunch of warm moisture coming out of Texas and the 540 retreating - but I'm only out to 240 - and like I said - correct me if I'm wrong


EDIT - Got the rest of the run and I recant - except temps
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it had happened by 240..this is a great look
 
This look somewhat agrees with the 12z Euro EPS. The low could sure enough turn out to be an ULL. I'm not worried about temps right now cause it's too early for that. I don't mind checking the anomalies though.

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Song of the nights playlist for GFS!?
" Rain, Rain , go away!
Come back another day"
Or
" you dropped a rain bomb on me"
 
bouncycorn said:
What makes you figure that? Even if it slides along the coast the backside of the low would amp the high and trough


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Oh, I was just trying to be positive on the first swing and miss hoping it would help slow the cold air from retreating on the second threat.
 
Just checked the 2m anomalies they don't look that bad...no torch during that period. 850mb anomalies aren't that bad looking either.

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00z cmc has the same look with temps in the 60s......
40f4e9093897845c56a74c06b0285e3d.jpg

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Aww peeps! Don't you know it's the small things that can make a magical winter storm... or just the 'finer things'.. lol!

 
Well, usually too cold Canadian is warm too? Uh oh.
 
That was a fun run. I guess I'll try to stay up for the Euro OP. I like where we stand at now with this system. It could be one of those "warm" snow storms that can produce a lot of snow. I don't want to see really cold air because this would dry up moisture and it could just suppress it. So, the warm look right now isn't a bad sign but I don't want to put my conclusions too far.

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The CMC goes in basically a totally different direction from the GFS after the first round (which is looking like it's probably going to be a cutter). It goes in the direction of the pacific being very strong and really warming up everywhere in the US outside of the north after it (and I don't mean MA and north).
 
CMC is terrible outside of 120 hours and it has a lot of toss-able runs. It has crazy runs with almost every storm this far out
 
bouncycorn said:
CMC is terrible outside of 120 hours and it has a lot of toss-able runs. It has crazy runs with almost every storm this far out
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Agree, the CMC starts doing better in that shorter period of the mid range. But, it can have some wild swings in that shorter period and in the short term.

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I didn't even know on the CMC, I was just saying the reason for a different direction. The reason for it is it really warms up after the super bowl storm system.

There was someone on twitter though that tweeted something similar to this "The models are going to struggle with the volatility of the potential pattern setting up, so don't be surprised if you see wild swings on the models".
 
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