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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, details will obviously change a lot between now and then, but it appears that we may have the very basic, most generalized, large-scale ingredients for a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the southern tier of the US after the 20th, really can't say anything more than that atm
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Gotta remember that we are in Dixie severe weather season. The setup certainly looks plump!


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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, details will obviously change a lot between now and then, but it appears that we may have the very basic, most generalized, large-scale ingredients for a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the southern tier of the US after the 20th, really can't say anything more than that atm
Click to expand...
Webb - If we get a big dig in the NS right before then, and it relaxes, would that exacerbate things (generally speaking)?
 
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18Z GFS ULL is cut off much sooner than the 12Z
3 contour low by 78 hours, looks very strong...another run, another solution. let's see where it goes
 
bouncycorn said:
Yes it is. Dixie Allie tornado season is February through April.


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Wrong. Never has been. In Southern states, tornado season is typically from March to May. In the Southern Plains, it lasts from May to early June. On the Gulf Coast, tornadoes occur most often during the spring. And in the Northern Plains, Northern states and upper Midwest, peak season is in June or July.
February is the third LOWEST month for tornadoes
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, details will obviously change a lot between now and then, but it appears that we may have the very basic, most generalized, large-scale ingredients for a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the southern tier of the US after the 20th, really can't say anything more than that atm
Click to expand...
you won a hockey national championship? Holy s*** that's worth a live show right there
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - If we get a big dig in the NS right before then, and it relaxes, would that exacerbate things (generally speaking)?
Click to expand...

That certainly could, and if there's any snowpack leftover from the preceding storm(s) in the northeast US, advection of this airmass into that disturbance could enhance lower level baroclinicity and of course if the NS dug out ahead of this, the upstream wavelengths would shorten and that could amplify our cut-off ULL in the southern stream. This system will be riding along the leading edge of a rather robust wave packet in the Pacific jet that was generated in large part by the ongoing Pacific MJO pulse and this wave packet will eventually enter the North America domain by the 20th, so there's some legitimacy to this potential threat... It's also not everyday that you see a 140-150 KT subtropical jet streak crashing into south-central California...
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