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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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The Euro did hold onto the energy to the SW longer the previous runs and cold temps are always a plus, but still too fast and a long ways to go but hopefully this starts a trend???
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not at all. The cold arrives after the system is gone. Anyone see how horrendously dry it is while the system slides to our south? That may work in our favor if surface temps are an issue.
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No temp profiles would support snow south of Montgomery at hr 180 if you could get moisture thrown in there to wetbulb it down. The deformation band sits right inland off the coast. Now whether or not the precip would expand farther north than shown is up in the air.
 
The key right now is not will it be cold enough because the cold air available will need help, but can we get enough dry air pumped in and hope for a wetbulb miricle and a thread the needle track to put you in the precip while not WAA'ing you into oblivion. The surface high over the Great Lakes could really help provide the feed of drier air. The sad part is if there was any snowpack north of us, we would be perfect.

2/25/15 keeps flooding into my mind, although FWIW this could and I say could turn out more favorable for a larger area.
 
Arcc said:
No temp profiles would support snow south of Montgomery at hr 180 if you could get moisture thrown in there to wetbulb it down. The deformation band sits right inland off the coast. Now whether or not the precip would expand farther north than shown is up in the air.
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It could be close. Here is the sounding for Montgomery.
gfs_2017020912_180_32.25--86.25.png

I personally don't see the low going this far south. The models will eventually come NW anyway, so we seem to be on track for something, but the big question is if there will be enough moisture for something in the cold. I would like to see colder versions of the 0Z come up personally, and we may trend that way, or further south. It however doesn't look squashed, which I don't see a worry this time.
 
Just comparing the 12z runs of the GFS and the Euro. The Euro has been trending towards what the GFS has been showing. On the 12z Euro, the low pressure system is further south than on previous runs. However, it is not as far south like the GFS and it's not as cold as the GFS. Also, the 12z Euro is faster than GFS, I'd say it's at least 12+ hours faster. Looking up at H5 on the 12z Euro, it is very close to a phase across the southeast. The energy does phase, in fact from the 12z Euro up over the Mid-Atlantic is where the two peices phase. If the energy slows down some, we can have a phase across the southeast. If this were to occur, this will be a significant winter storm. The reason why the 12z Euro is closer to a phase is cause the low pressure system is faster. The ULL is not being hung back for so long like on the GFS. After looking at the 12z Euro, I'm getting on that edge of excitement, but not quite yet.
 
Just for fun it seems some of the bigger snow storms for my neck of the woods have happened right after a nice warm period, 93 Blizzard hit my hometown just lil over 2 weeks after a particular warm Feb. in which we had a strong tornado roll thru and do all sorts of damage to my town and then you have this Jan. 2011 window which shows 8 days prior a 67 to the storm, and this upcoming weekend we will be looking at low 70s so we shall see if this anomaly plays out?

Weather history Dallas january 2011
Day High
(°F) Low
(°F) Precip.
(inch) Snow
(inch) Snow
depth
(inch)
1 jan 2011 66.9 43.0 0.00 - -
2 jan 2011 59.0 37.0 1.14 - -
3 jan 2011 50.0 21.0 0.00 - -
4 jan 2011 51.1 24.1 0.00 - -
5 jan 2011 55.9 28.0 0.00 - -
6 jan 2011 52.0 32.0 0.25 - -
7 jan 2011 46.9 30.0 0.00 - -
8 jan 2011 57.9 30.0 0.00 - -
9 jan 2011 46.0 14.0 0.00 - -
10 jan 2011 36.0 18.0 1.26 7.01 5.00
11 jan 2011 28.9 21.0 0.03 T 4.02
 
Wonder if I should be concerned that the NAVGEM and JMA have about the same low placement as the GFS...SMH!


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