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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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not much lol, but you see the idea of Potential!!!
 
I'm very excited as of now, perfect setup for something special crazy
 
I'm excited, but not very excited right now, cause I don't want to be disappointed. I've been disappointed enough this winter.

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Now that low hangs back longer, this gives us 8 days. Plenty time to watch
 
SnowHusky said:
I'm excited, but not very excited right now, cause I don't want to be disappointed. I've been disappointed enough this winter.

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I totally agree with ya, but hey what else is going on
 
If you're in CAE looking for a Feb 2010 type of snowstorm again, then the GFS run is almost there. Just a tad more north and it's ALL snow.
 
It's still too early to really be excited but this time, I've REALLY seen this story before, except last time snow was showing before it went to where it was suppressed. I remember that there was a good winter storm showing, than it got squashed into the gulf, and came back later.
 
accu35 said:
Honestly, I'm only watching that time frame lol
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Somewhere a few pages back, before the runs started coming in and related discussion ensued, I posted a link to a "movie" of the GFS and Nam runs (select your run) for precip type; it's not the best data source in the world by any stretch of the imagination, but it does help "visualize" what individual model panels are showing wrt precip; in case that got buried here it is again, should anyone find it of interest:
http://www.coolwx.com/ptype/
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Liking where we stand. I don't see a huge north trend but I doubt this goes that far south.

At 192 there's a little light snow near the coast of SC.
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In mid Feb (when far supressed lows have the best chance to occur per history) with a -3 AO, a +2 PNA, and an MJO phase 8 with amp of 3 just preceding it, this may very well buck the GFS trend and never trend back all that much or perhaps any NW. This is a highly unusual situation.
 
bouncycorn said:
Like 3


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Ok good deal. I thought it took a while. That one was a little different in evolution. You'd think the Euro would do ok with ULLs...though it used to have a bias of holding them back in the SW a bit too long.
 
GaWx said:
In mid Feb (when far supressed lows have the best chance to occur per history) with a -3 AO and a +2 PNA just preceding it, this may very well buck the GFS trend and never trend back all that much or perhaps any NW. This is a highly unusual situation.
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this issue is gonna be if it does trend NW its because the cold press is backing off which will mean rain for most . I think at this point I'd rather take my chance with a phase .



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