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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Jon said:
The 850mb line is really what one should look at for the rain/snow line (ignoring in-situ shallow layers that form), not really the 540.
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Yep Huffman has discussed this many times before and you or Shane can probably explain it but for the SE the 540 line isn't a good factor for rn/sn and good thing too. Lol
 
Next frame of the DGEX would show substantially more snow into SC/NC me thinks.
 
DGEX FTW... here ya go lol

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I love these like buttons on here, everybody taking advantage of that, LOL!! Hey if Shane, Charlie, Larry, Shawn likes something, then I know I'm good to go with liking it to lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date in 1948, the 2nd crippling snowstorm in nearly a week smashed the northern coastal plain and tidewater regions of North Carolina, dropping up to 19 inches of snow in Elizabeth City. The combined 2-storm snow totals approached 2.5 feet in parts of Halifax, Nash, Edgecombe, Wilson, and Northampton counties. The overall setup was rather unusual for a Miller A, with very weak surface lows tracking well offshore in the midst of high-latitude blocking centered over the northeastern Pacific w/ an attendant deep upper level trough over eastern Canada and Greenland and a southeast US ridge. (sounds familiar eh?). Normally, when you see this much snow over the eastern portion state, you'd anticipate to see high-latitude blocking dominating the North Atlantic and strong &/or very strong surface cyclones just offshore, not a weak frontal wave in association w/ a bonafide overrunning event. Yeah, early February 1948 is very strange and defies most canonical winter storm setups in eastern and central NC...
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Nice! This has to be the times my dad speaks of when he says he remembers having to help dig out a path to their outhouse and like a wall of snow on each side. Lol.... I didn't believe him, you know the 'ol "walked to school up hill both ways in the snow" stories haha but as a 7 year old at that time I'm sure it seemed like walls of snow to him
 
OK, just worked off this morning. Tired but I'm staying awake for the 12z with a cup of coffee, what the heck might as well.
 
For anyone else with Time-Zone issues, go to your "preferences" and it should be there to change to Eastern or Central or whatever timezone you're in.

Here is a link that should work while you are logged in to bring it up: Link
 
metwannabe said:
Nice! This has to be the times my dad speaks of when he says he remembers having to help dig out a path to their outhouse and like a wall of snow on each side. Lol.... I didn't believe him, you know the 'ol "walked to school up hill both ways in the snow" stories haha but as a 7 year old at that time I'm sure it seemed like walls of snow to him
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There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
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Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
 
Well another GFS run (6z) and another trend south and cooler. I wouldn't be excited yet but if something like this can hold for about two days without a wild shift I'd slowly start getting excited if I were in North AL/North GA/Upstate SC and north of there. While I don't see a cutter happening I also don't see this getting too far south.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
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SD said:
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
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So I was reading an article the other day (Founders week at Campbell University where my daughter is a freshman), anyway it was discussing the universities beginning and how in the late 1800's when it was Buies Creek Academy one of the founders was so concerned about children's education that he would walk the kids in the community across the frozen Cape Fear River to get them to class during Winter.... I wonder if there is any validity to that statement, just seems unreal to me, that far south. Anyway sorry for the OT just passing time till the 12z suites run
 
SD said:
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
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Even then, January 2000 was really just a small taste of what winters were regularly like in the 19th century and 20th century, and although many may think it's unusual for Raleigh to get several decent snowstorms in a row, it's not as uncommon as you may think. Oth, seeing several large winter storms evenly spaced out in every month of the winter like 1935-36 is exceptionally rare...
The winter of 1935-36 is my favorite to study in NC, simply for the fact that there were several large storms in every month of the winter and December, January, and February were all amazing months in terms of both cold and snow. It's about as close as you can get to perfection, hopefully someday another winter like this will come around...

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December 1935-January 1936 global SSTAs (HADISST, 1916-1945 base period). +PDO, warm neutral-borderline weak El Nino event, NE Pacific warm pool ("blob"), and +AMO are evident...
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Jon said:
I meant to post this yesterday but I never sent it...so Phil if you're listening..

Take the event about to unfold for the NE for example, on the mslp map we have a 1018 HP to the north and a 1031 HP in the central plains....and the NE about to get 12"+, why? Because of the phase with the northern stream, that's it.

We are looking at the same thing here. One shouldn't really focus on mslp HP values, it doesn't truly mean anything for this storm as we are clearly not going to have some kind of banana high or a solid wedge to help the SE with temps. What we have to rely on solely is the northern stream diving in out ahead of the surface low/ULL. There's no cold on the models when the ULL comes through because the northern stream isn't far south enough. The issue here is timing. The SE will be hard pressed to get a solution that will work out for everyone... We really need the ULL to hang back 12 hours or so AND a deep vortex to get anywhere close....problem is, also, depending on how far north the ULL ends up being, the vortex can phase with it early and a majority of us will be out of business. I don't think that will end up being the case given the suppression...but we can't have too much suppression as it leads to rain.
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Jon - Thanks and yes, as always and of course I'm "listening" - but between court appearances this week!
Once again you and I have the same pragmatic optimism, just coming to the same conclusion by entering the room from different doors. I concur with your assessment and appreciate the input. - Phil
 
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