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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Timing is perfect on the 6z GFS, even the surface temps for NC look good. Suppression is good at this stage because we all know this thing will tick NW at some point. On the 6z, it's very close to phase...that would pull the surface low NW. If we don't get a phase we could also have a further North track of the energy once the ULL opens up, but that's just hard to do without risking a more northern storm track...threading the needle here, but I like the trends.

Also, perfect timing with this storm moving in overnight - surface temp minimums during this window and at least a less of a chance for sleet.


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Canadian ensemble members


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bouncycorn said:
Eps looks terrible. Trending more and more towards cutter.


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I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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Jon said:
I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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Yeah I just looked at the members. Many are suppressed but many are also cutters.

Just wondering, you don't think an early phase would lead to the system cutting? I think that's what many of the members show.


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Jon said:
Timing is perfect on the 6z GFS, even the surface temps for NC look good. Suppression is good at this stage because we all know this thing will tick NW at some point. On the 6z, it's very close to phase...that would pull the surface low NW. If we don't get a phase we could also have a further North track of the energy once the ULL opens up, but that's just hard to do without risking a more northern storm track...threading the needle here, but I like the trends.

Also, perfect timing with this storm moving in overnight - surface temp minimums during this window and at least a less of a chance for sleet.


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Yeah just at quick glance the GFS looks really close. Definitely has my interest now.
 
Jon said:
I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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100% agree. The systems showing on the EPS are mostly suppressed. As you have already stated we will be walking a fine line w/timing but the trends now look more doable.


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bouncycorn said:
Yeah I just looked at the members. Many are suppressed but many are also cutters.

Just wondering, you don't think an early phase would lead to the system cutting? I think that's what many of the members show.


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It would, however I don't think the phase would be that early...well, not a traditional early phase say south of TN or so. A phase about as early as you can get will probably lead to a main low track over N GA and NC, making the winners the greater VA and DCA area or NE, depending on how the system wraps up. It's hard to call what exactly would occur because we haven't seen it, with this system. A late phase could help for NC for intensification purposes. Realistically we just want the N stream digging as far south as it can with the low phasing just right, would see something similar the NE is seeing however obviously more temp issues here. It's hard. Obviously in my region in central NC I'm hoping for a bit of a phase but not too early, perfect nighttime timing and a low off the coast with maximum snowfall in my area :) but honestly I'd be happy with anyone in the SE getting this one. Sorry, rambling on while getting ready for work haha


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Keep in mind the models didn't lock into the final result of the energy interaction for the NE storm occurring today until about 3 days out or less...an incredible amount of time left and the trends are on our side for now


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Jon said:
Keep in mind the models didn't lock into the final result of the energy interaction for the NE storm occurring today until about 3 days out or less...an incredible amount of time left and the trends are on our side for now


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Yeah...That's the scary part...


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If the GFS is right an early phase won't matter much as it will not amp that much with the big block off the NE. If that big storm trends westward than the situation will change.
 
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