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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'm still keeping an eye on that 11+ day system. Not getting into details of my thoughts about it just quite yet.

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SnowHusky said:
Larry,
I'm excited about the possibilities but not that excited yet cause we're 6-7 days away from this event and there's no model agreement with the Euro. 12z Euro is warmer and track of low is further north.

Now of course, if the Euro starts to trend towards what the GFS has been showing, then I'll sign up.

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This sounds reasonable. Believe me, I want to see the King support this. IF there really is going to be a SE storm, one would think the Euro runs will eventually show it.
 
bouncycorn said:
Suppressed is definitely what we want in this range.


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I agree, it's a nice change as previous runs had been showing a good amount of apps runners. there is still 1 or 2 showing that but for the most part the members are south

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Storm5 said:
I agree, it's a nice change as previous runs had been showing a good amount of apps runners. there is still 1 or 2 showing that but for the most part the members are south

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All in for the GFS 00z LMBO!



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bouncycorn said:
I still don't like what the GFS is showing. You need high pressure. It's a requirement for significant Dixie snow events. What the GFS showed was like 2-8" of snow from atl to cae falling into upper 30s and lower 40s. I know it's attainable, but temperatures that high at the surface won't drop 10 degrees easily.

And you won't get a simple warmer/cooler trend. You need a high pressure to get any more of a cooling trend, imo.


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Yes, that is another issue, a HP needs to be to the NW of the system to help filter in the colder air. The cold air is there, but it's not being forced. There definitely needs to be a high cause the low and high will be working together to help bring the cold air in.

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SoutheastRidge said:
You may not have this info off the top of your head, but do you remember the last time Atlanta had a major snow or ice event in the 2nd half of Feb ( between Feb 15-29 ) ?
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2/17-18/1979 4" sleetstorm (Tony special).
 
Storm5 said:
I agree, it's a nice change as previous runs had been showing a good amount of apps runners. there is still 1 or 2 showing that but for the most part the members are south

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I'm still worried about low level temps. We need either
1) massive amplification of the pna ridge
2) a high pressure to form to our northwest.

The first looks more likely but, of course, that option usually brings most uncertainties. And in a time of pattern change, the results of said pna ridge will likely be underdone at this range.

It'd be nice to get both though, still attainable.


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bouncycorn said:
I still don't like what the GFS is showing. You need high pressure. It's a requirement for significant Dixie snow events. What the GFS showed was like 2-8" of snow from atl to cae falling into upper 30s and lower 40s. I know it's attainable, but temperatures that high at the surface won't drop 10 degrees easily.

And you won't get a simple warmer/cooler trend. You need a high pressure to get any more of a cooling trend, imo.


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No its not a requirement, it helps no doubt, but there are exceptions.

sfc_25_21Z.gif
 
I'm keeping an eye on the 11+ day system becuase

1. On the 0z GFS there is a HP to the NW and N of the system.

2. As of right now, it could be a Miller A system and it's a strong system.

3. 0z GFS shows signs of some CAD, surface temps are warm but their not showing in the 60s or 70s. Temps are showing in the 30s and 40s.

4. Ridgeing out west and to the NE. May have a +PNA and a -NAO.

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Arcc said:
What HP? The nearest significant HP is in far far NW Canada.
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There's a weak high pressure system and inverted ridge off of Chesapeake. Otherwise it wouldn't be 37 degrees in Atlanta ahead of the leading fropa!


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Arcc said:
What HP? The nearest significant HP is in far far NW Canada.
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And besides the weak HP, the system included a phased setup. Right now, the upcoming setup does not look phased. That's why temps are progged warm.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Thanks for the info. Hard to believe it's been nearly 40 years since ATL had a major winter event in the 2nd half of Feb.
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YW. What's amazing is that at ATL there was not one, not 2, not 3, 4, or 5 but a whopping SIX major snow or Tony storms just within the 18 year period 1885-1902!! Yes, one major snow or sleet every 3 years on average just for 2/15-28!! They were not just during El Niño but also during neutrals as well as La Ninas! During the 1880's-1910, Feb was by far King of the ATL major winter storm with far more during that month than during any other month! Interestingly, back then Feb was quite a bit colder on average vs the last 30+ years, but Jan is now about the same as it was then.
 
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