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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I like the setup at 500 but there's just something....missing.

And this run has more pockets of light snow appear just like the last run haha. It'll probably be less though.
 
lol
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Arcc said:
This may sound silly, but I'm really getting a 2/25/15 vibe off this one. That one was very marginal temp wise and really didn't show up to be a significant threat until four days out.

Hmmmm.
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The event was looking fairly decent imo from about a week before, it was places like ATL and BHM that were marginal (and a lot of the southern parts of those metro areas didn't see anything).
 
You need stronger high pressure for surface cold.

I don't think it's an unattainable goal. HP strength and orientation really like to change beyond day 4-5


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Storm5 said:
surface temps a blazing
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Upper 30s are doable and they seem to be trending ever so slightly cooler with each run! That run looks identical to the 12z para! Need to see how much further south it can trend, before the correcting N begins!
 
It was touch and go for a while but this run trended in the right direction again with the temps. Still not perfect but maybe this is a time in which I see strange things happen for once.
 
I just checked the 850 temps and there is some CAD going on. I'm not going to buy this what the GFS shows, we need Euro and ensemble support.

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Yes, you can attain cold 850s with the setup (cold enough for widespread snow) with the trough/ridge alone. Our H5 flow is directly from northern Canada and the trend lately has been a stronger ridge. That will not be enough for surface cold though!


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Tarheel1 said:
Upper 30s are doable and they seem to be trending ever so slightly cooler with each run! That run looks identical to the 12z para! Need to see how much further south it can trend, before the correcting N begins!
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Ive had accumulating snow at 37. does not hang around long but it's doable no doubt

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Let's see what the 11+ day system will look like. The vortex is still there and where I want it at 216. This could setup a better winter threat for the 11+ day system.

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Not a big fan of this setup. Never a good sign when you have a low to your northwest and to your southeast. Unless we can strengthen some sort of strong CAD high, I don't see this being a big producer.


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People on here are talking about a big Northwest Trend but if we have massive blocking in Greenland it actually could trend South toward Suppression if anything!!! Now with that being said I WANT SOME FLURRIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA THATS ALL I NEED!!!:):)
 
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