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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Webberweather53 said:
Several EPS members are in the 970s-980s w/ the attendant surface low across the mid-lower MS valley... That would challenge monthly all-time record lows
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Which, that kind of pressure is classified as a Cat. 2 hurricane strength. Indeed a strong storm system.



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Webberweather53 said:
Again, as I've been saying for several days, with a massive ridge over SE Canada and into the Great Lakes, I'd be much more concerned about severe weather than wintry weather w/ that system, looks awfully similar to January's setup.
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Remember when severe season was in the spring and the secondary one usually in November? Now it seems we have severe outbreaks more and more throughout the whole year. We have a better chance of getting thunderstorms in winter now than winter storms.
 
Don't know the last GFS para anybody mentioned, but 12z para, has a very supressed Miller A, ground temps in 40s for almost everyone. Really is a waste of a great potential storm track!
 
Well, the 0z is about the same so far, even up at H5. The only difference is that it is colder on this run than 18z so far.

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Man where did the strength of the storm in the northeast come from on 13-14? I've just noticed it was going on last run and is now.
 
This run looks like it might have a little more of an arctic tap with it

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I might end up being off but this one looks like another south trend and another trend cooler. Maybe a bit bigger trend, but still not significant.
 
With the northern stream shifted farther east and what looks like weaker this the upper low shouldn't get sheared as much and will probably end up north of 18z

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ehhhhhh, now it's looking like it's about the same or a little warmer. The vortex is there but it's straight.
 
The ULL is being held back some than 18z and also the trough in the NE is digging down more than 18z.

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The cold is just... Right .......there! It's crazy cold 850s in PA and even close to DC! Gonna be south over the gulf, like 18z, I believe
 
Well, folks, it looks like we have some CAD now interacting with the midmonth GFS storm.
 
This may sound silly, but I'm really getting a 2/25/15 vibe off this one. That one was very marginal temp wise and really didn't show up to be a significant threat until four days out.

Hmmmm.
 
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