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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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GeorgiaGirl said:
There was one day I remember back in early or mid December in which the fog was so thick it was making a middle of the afternoon day look more like it was early in the morning. It lasted all day and it just seemed so strange. While I was outside there was certain areas in which it felt warmer than others.

Just seemed spooky.
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Sounds like you've watched the movie "The Fog", I've seen that movie.

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Now all three of the +PNA, -AO, and MJO phase 8 are forecasted to peak at about the same time, 2/15, along with a now -NAO:

1. The +PNA peak, adjusted very slightly upward for bias, is up its highest yet, +2.05! A 2+ +PNA day happens one every 600 or so Feb days.
2. The MJO phase 8 peak is way up at 3.0! A 3+ phase 8 day happens about once every 150 feb days.
3. The -AO peak, adjusted less negative for bias, is down to its lowest yet, -3! A -3 or more negative AO day happens about once every 10 Feb days.
4. To add to that, for the first time, the NAO is forecasted to go negative with a peak also near 2/15 (-0.2 after small bias adjustment).

Bottom line: this is no ordinary pattern and the models may have more trouble than usual with any potential storm. Also, 2/15-6, when that storm is currently projected to affect the SE, is at the peak of winter snow climo. Remember that just a few days ago there was no SE storm as it was dry. Also, I see the 18Z GFS is colder for the storm.
 
It's funny watching people in the New York forum on the other board panic about maybe only getting 8-12" of snow while Long Island gets more lol.
 
Larry, if the ao and nao are negative, why aren't we getting cold and when could we before winter is over? Mjo in wrong phases? I'm confused. I'm talking to Gawx
 
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Wow, 12z EPS has a big storm days 12+. Let there be cold air in place with a storm like that down in the Gulf.

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Golferwhotries said:
Larry, if the ao and nao are negative, why aren't we getting cold and when could we before winter is over? Mjo in wrong phases? I'm confused
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1. We may still get colder at midmonth. That is still a week away.
2. The AO is only modestly negative right now as it is just now plunging.
3. The NAO is still + right now but is projected to fall.
4. We're just coming out of the warmest MJO phase, high amp phase 5.
5. Indonesian convection has been the culprit (the missing link) as regards a warm E US per what I posted yesterday from a pro met. He thinks the warmth will continue due to the convection continuing, which he says makes the effects like a warm MJO phases 4-6 no matter where the MJO is. This is related to the Pacific problem that the poster pcbjr has been emphasizing over and over.
6. The different indices are only tools that need to be looked at together and they are not anywhere close to being crystal balls.
 
GaWx said:
Now all three of the +PNA, -AO, and MJO phase 8 are forecasted to peak at about the same time, 2/15, along with a now -NAO:

1. The +PNA peak, adjusted very slightly upward for bias, is up its highest yet, +2.05! A 2+ +PNA day happens one every 600 or so Feb days.
2. The MJO phase 8 peak is way up at 3.0! A 3+ phase 8 day happens about once every 150 feb days.
3. The -AO peak, adjusted less negative for bias, is down to its lowest yet, -3! A -3 or more negative AO day happens about once every 10 Feb days.
4. To add to that, for the first time, the NAO is forecasted to go negative with a peak also near 2/15 (-0.2 after small bias adjustment).

Bottom line: this is no ordinary pattern and the models may have more trouble than usual with any potential storm. Also, 2/15-6, when that storm is currently projected to affect the SE, is at the peak of winter snow climo. Remember that just a few days ago there was no SE storm as it was dry. Also, I see the 18Z GFS is colder for the storm.
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Bring it home Larry!!!
 
GaWx said:
1. We may still get colder at midmonth. That is still a week away.
2. The AO is only modestly negative right now as it is just now plunging.
3. The NAO is still + right now but is projected to fall.
4. We're just coming out of the warmest MJO phase, high amp phase 5.
5. Indonesian convection has been the culprit (the missing link) as regards a warm E US per what I posted yesterday from a pro met. He thinks the warmth will continue due to the convection continuing, which he says makes the effects like a warm MJO phases 4-6 no matter where the MJO is. This is related to the Pacific problem that the poster pcbjr has been emphasizing over and over.
6. The different indices are only tools that need to be looked at together and they are not anywhere close to being crystal balls.
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If that's true, why are we even holding out any hope remaining of the winter? I thought we would get colder when mjo becomes more favorable and with better teleconnections
 
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
 
SnowHusky said:
Wow, 12z EPS has a big storm days 12+. Let there be cold air in place with a storm like that down in the Gulf.

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Again, as I've been saying for several days, with a massive ridge over SE Canada and into the Great Lakes, I'd be much more concerned about severe weather than wintry weather w/ that system, looks awfully similar to January's setup.
 
Tarheel1 said:
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
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Tarheel, that's what im saying. No point even hoping for cold and snow if all cold is overseas and not coming south anytime soon. Very bad pattern and bad break despite favorable everything else
 
Tarheel1 said:
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
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Agreed and unfortunately that looks like the case. As was shown on the 18z gfs there could be enough cold around for a narrow band of snow but it's not like we are going to get a mega arctic push next week

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Webberweather53 said:
Again, as I've been saying for several days, with a massive ridge over SE Canada and into the Great Lakes, I'd be much more concerned about severe weather than wintry weather w/ that system, looks awfully similar to January's setup.
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Yes, it does look like the Jan. severe wx outbreak. I do see that massive ridge in Canada, that's some strong ridgeing.

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SnowHusky said:
Yes, it does look like the Jan. severe wx outbreak. I do see that massive ridge in Canada, that's some strong ridging.

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Several EPS members are in the 970s-980s w/ the attendant surface low across the mid-lower MS valley... That would challenge monthly all-time record lows
FebruaryRecordLowSLPs.gif
eps_slp_lows_east_51.png
 
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