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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SnowHusky said:
I checked the MJO this morning, the GFS is putting it at neutral of phase 1/8 during 21-22 and then it goes back into phase 8 on the 25th. The GFS ensemble keeps it at a weak phase 8 after the 20th. Indices aren't that bad looking, wish the NAO will trend negative and the AO after the 20th. I'm thinking they will cause the GFS and EPS has been showing it getting colder after the 7-11 day system. I think the GEFS has also showing it getting colder.

Still going with my thinking, severe weather, specially south of I-20. Colder weather to follow after the phase takes place, depending on where the phase takes place, some states could transition over to snow.

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I starting to get feel we going see a large swath of a severe wx outbreak later month with the h5 pattern showing on models... say from the arkaltex to lower ohio valey need to pay very close attention ... then might get some cooler after the big system passes... some one could catch some nice snow on the backside of the system... looking forward to 12z runs today
 
shoulder-deep-snow.jpg
me 3 years ago, lol
 
SnowHusky said:
I checked the MJO this morning, the GFS is putting it at neutral of phase 1/8 during 21-22 and then it goes back into phase 8 on the 25th. The GFS ensemble keeps it at a weak phase 8 after the 20th. Indices aren't that bad looking, wish the NAO will trend negative and the AO after the 20th. I'm thinking they will cause the GFS and EPS has been showing it getting colder after the 7-11 day system. I think the GEFS has also showing it getting colder.

Still going with my thinking, severe weather, specially south of I-20. Colder weather to follow after the phase takes place, depending on where the phase takes place, some states could transition over to snow.

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Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
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I agree 100 percent. it wasn't until this year when I saw your post back in early January abiut the gfs and gefs and their horrible mjo forecasts . it clearly has a problem or a bias . either way,I won't trust it

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Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
Click to expand...
I can understand that, cause the GFS has been having a colder bias. It's certainly not impossible that the MJO will go back into phase 8 for late month. There's limited skill with modeling starting from mid-range into the long range, as you know.

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SnowHusky said:
I can understand that, cause the GFS has been having a colder bias. It's certainly not impossible that the MJO will go back into phase 8 for late month. There's limited skill with modeling starting from mid-range into the long range, as you know.

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No, I've seen this movie from the GEFS way too many times, it's not going to happen lol...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
Click to expand...

Very great points Eric.


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Webberweather53 said:
No, I've seen this movie from the GEFS way too many times, it's not going to happen lol...
Click to expand...

Oth, it's certainly possible for it to return to the Western Hemisphere in March, however if by random chance the GEFS is miraculously correct, and we see the MJO retrograde back over phase 8, it really wouldn't qualify as an MJO pulse to begin w/, such behavior is reminiscent of the RMM Principal Components actually projecting onto twin convectively coupled kelvin waves which doesn't necessarily have the same sensible impacts as an MJO event.
 
Regardless of details wrt the MJO and specific disturbances, we're likely going to be in a for a bumpy ride the next few weeks as the subtropical jet goes on steroids thanks largely to the MJO. We should remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions, forecasts, and severe weather. The next few days should be a nice appetizer for those south of the I-20 corridor.
day2otlk_0700.gif
 
ATLwxfan said:
I have a feeling we could have a wet few weeks coming up which hopefully eases the drought.


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Lets hope so because we're getting to the time of year when the drought can start intensifying, especially with the increasing sun angle.
 
Probably worth mentioning that the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm this year, with some of the highest SSTAs since at least the 1970s. Certainly bodes well for severe wx prospects later in the spring as the air masses advected northward in advance of mid-latitude rossby waves will originate from a warmer source region, modify appreciably less, and likely have higher vapor pressures...
NCEP NCAR Reanalysis January GOM SSTs (1948-2016)
climindex.152.7.52.63.43.9.12.49.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png
 
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