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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Anyone real familiar with the HRRR and 10m wind gusts. Things look nasty here and in the mountains of NWNC at around 1300UTC tomorrow. It looks like this for several runs but it also looks weird...like some sort of feedback. We are warned for wind but that spike looks pretty epic. Just curious if that model has some sort of bias. Sorry if off topic but maybe better than crying over no snow?
 
Anybody watching that stuff in California with the spillway?
 
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if you want a great GFS run, this is the proper way to pray
 
Nomanslandva said:
Anyone real familiar with the HRRR and 10m wind gusts. Things look nasty here and in the mountains of NWNC at around 1300UTC tomorrow. It looks like this for several runs but it also looks weird...like some sort of feedback. We are warned for wind but that spike looks pretty epic. Just curious if that model has some sort of bias. Sorry if off topic but maybe better than crying over no snow?
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I've never heard anything about the HRRR having a wind bias. Things will probably really start ripping up that way when you are able to get good mixing in the CAA flow

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I'm looking over the 12z EPS and it still shows a disturbance coming up through the GOM starting around the 20th. There is another disturbance coming out of the SW at the same time the feature from the GOM is lifting north.Will there be a convergence with the two features? It's too early to say for sure. The GFS did show the two features converging further south on it's past runs. The 18z GFS still had the two pieces phasing much further north over the northeast US/SE Canada. Later this week, days 8-12 will start to get into that med. range of the time that the models have more skill. Days 8-12 still needs to be monitored on the models. Now onto the 0z GFS run.
 
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Anyone notice the NAM?.....I know, I know, but it is coming in colder, later, and more juicy. Awfully close to something good for NC. Right now, 2m temps are too high for anything.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Its happening very slowly, but the GFS is caving to a low that is further north.
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Yup, much Euro like. I'm writing the 15th-16th system off, there won't be much in the way of snow with that system. If there was, we would have seen it by now on the models. Someone may score across western NC.
 
bouncycorn said:
Does this winter worry anyone about climate change?

It's certainly alarming the general public.


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No because a few winters ago I had two junk winters in a row followed by two really good ones. As storm5 said a few days ago we live in the south. I know some have had multiple bad winters in a row but all that means is your closer to a good one. Now if 5 out 6 were absolutely horrible I might start worrying I need to move north.
 
Now I'm not going to predict a good winter next winter, but 2011 (no, I'm not talking about early that year, I'm talking about December-into 2012)-2013 were bad winters and two good winters followed those winters. I may not be talking about your specific area, but both 2014 and 2015 were cold and snowy winters in the southeast in general. You have to put it in that perspective, and not in an IMBY perspective.

And heck, you know what? Recently its gone two good winters, two bad winters, two good winters, and now two bad. Next two: ??

Not predicting a good winter next year, but just saying...
 
olhausen said:
No because a few winters ago I had two junk winters in a row followed by two really good ones. As storm5 said a few days ago we live in the south. I know some have had multiple bad winters in a row but all that means is your closer to a good one. Now if 5 out 6 were absolutely horrible I might start worrying I need to move north.
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That's exactly what Atlanta is dealing with. 5 out of 6 winters have been horrible. Just be glad you live far enough north that you see snow every winter.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now I'm not going to predict a good winter next winter, but 2011 (no, I'm not talking about early that year, I'm talking about December-into 2012)-2013 were bad winters and two good winters followed those winters. I may not be talking about your specific area, but both 2014 and 2015 were cold and snowy winters in the southeast in general. You have to put it in that perspective, and not in an IMBY perspective.

And heck, you know what? Recently its gone two good winters, two bad winters, two good winters, and now two bad. Next two: ??

Not predicting a good winter next year, but just saying...
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North of I-20. Most of the south is south of I-20 believe it or not, and yes i'm including all of Florida.
 
Holy crap the subtropical jet on the GFS absolutely dominates North America after the 20th... This is what happens when you have one of the strongest MJO events on record @ this time of the year in the Pacific & western hemisphere
 
This is friggin insane... 3 upper level jet streaks driving upper level divergence out the NW Gulf of Mexico w/ this incoming trough on the leading edge of a monster subtropical jet streak.
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Webber, I still think that there will be winter weather at some point during the days 7-11 depending on the timing of that system. The MJO could go back into phase 8 during that time period. The AO mean outlook is still showing it will be negative after the 16th and then neutral but I think it go trend back negative after the 20th or so. As of right now, the PNA appers to stay positive according to the mean outlook but the teleconnections will change and the indices. Given the paramenters, there could be a major east coast snow storm or it could occur across the OH Valley depending on where the phase takes place.
 
This is really about as close to perfection as it gets wrt maximizing upper level divergence and leading to an absolute bomb at the surface. Like the GFS, the canadian also depicts 3 upper level jet streaks simultaneously driving mass away from the surface in the northern gulf. Not only is there speed shear and lateral divergence near the exit region of the primary STJ streak in the southwestern US but you also have even more diffluence being generated by the splitting of the upper level streaks out in front of the trough axis... It's hard enough to get the thermally indirect and direct transverse ageostrophic circulations from 2 jet streaks to overlap in the same area, but 3? Lol... From a large-scale physical standpoint, this is just plain stupid.
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