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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SnowHusky said:
Oh yeah, sure enough with a fast moving jet like that will stir up some significant weather. Last time I checked, the jet will have a split flow, slowing down the jet down to 100+kts rather than a fast flowing jet at 150+kts crashing into the west. Late this month into March will be very interesting, severe weather wise and winter weather wise.

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There's no split flow here w/ a big GOA/Alaskan vortex, we just have an extended Pacific jet leading to an amplified storm track in the southern tier, which should be plenty of fun to watch unfold. Split flow may eventually evolve thereafter but it will be at least a few weeks...
The jet extension and ferocity is really not that unreasonable given the favorable intraseasonal forcing from the MJO... This Pacific jet is going to be no joke...125 KT jet streak slamming into south-central California for a day 9 ensemble mean is pretty insaneeps_uv200_conus_39.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's no split flow here w/ a big GOA/Alaskan vortex, we just have an extended Pacific jet leading to an amplified storm track in the southern tier, which should be plenty of fun to watch unfold. Split flow may eventually evolve thereafter but it will be at least a few weeks...
The jet extension and ferocity is really not that unreasonable given the favorable intraseasonal forcing from the MJO... This Pacific jet is going to be no joke...125 KT jet streak slamming into south-central California for a day 9 ensemble mean is pretty insaneView attachment 123
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Yes sir, there's no split flow coming onshore. The split flow is off shore the last time I checked. I'll check again today. This is what's causing a phase with the EC storm is the two pieces coming from the northern stream and one in the southern stream, phasing over that strong jet.

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I knew it was going to be mild/above normal this month, but dang, I had no idea Mexico and the southwestern US were gonna decide to fart on the entire North American continent this week.
It's already 82F in RDU & climbing... Would be a heck of a statement if we broke the all-time monthly record high in the climatologically cooler first half of the month
Screen Shot 2017-02-12 at 2.28.39 PM.png


Here's a table of the daily record max highs for each day of the calendar year in Raleigh (1887-present). We've obliterated today's record high by at least 7-8F.
Screen Shot 2017-02-12 at 12.50.24 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I knew it was going to be mild/above normal this month, but dang, I had no idea Mexico and the southwestern US were gonna decide to fart on the entire North American continent this week.
It's already 82F in RDU & climbing... Would be a heck of a statement if we broke the all-time monthly record high in the climatologically cooler first half of the month
View attachment 124


Here's a table of the daily record max highs for each day of the calendar year in Raleigh (1887-present). We've obliterated today's record high by at least 7-8F.
View attachment 125
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At this rate you'll have alligators in the French Broad River next month ... LOL

(and I'm not talkin' about FL tourists!!!)
 
It'd probably be 80 already here if cloud cover didn't slow down the daytime warming. Might still make a run at it but I think the high will be 78 again here.
 
Seems to magically be no change at RDU over the last hour, during the hottest part of the day. Looks like no records will fall today.
 
three years ago today .....
66d1157c66268b748de09c3a0ef43c48.jpg


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Webberweather53 said:
No, it's a very legitimate question... There should be much cooler air in the wake of this storm and if it intensifies very rapidly and takes just the right track, I guess we really couldn't rule out some token flakes and/or minor wintry weather outside the Appalachians.
Thereafter, the pattern looks conducive-very conducive once again for more severe weather in the southeastern US and/or southern plains w/ a big trough digging into the southwestern US, SER, and a very strong subtropical jet.
View attachment 120
View attachment 119
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no doubt a big severe wx event is lurking down the rod with that h5 look... im ready for a high end threat... been while since we had a high risk day by spc in south midsouth region... me being a storm chaser n loving severe wx... im getting hyped up some towards end month.
 
bouncycorn said:
What's causing all this heat? Webb?


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If you really want the short and sweet answer, it's the superposition of interdecadal, seasonal, and intraseasonal forcing that's forcing this warm pattern across much of the US (i.e. long term warming, ENSO/QBO/Solar, etc, and the MJO respectively). It was pretty apparent from the outset of the winter that February was likely going to be warm and that's exactly what happened... Virtually every analog package I created for this year showed an above-well above average February over most of the US minus the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies and the winter growing progressively warmer w/ the coldest month relative to averages being December, while one could also assume based on the coupling of the statewide temperature and precip forecasts & tendencies of -ENSO/WQBO years that this year's severe weather season would get off to a fast start. In fact, last January's tornado outbreak ranks as the largest tornado outbreak in Georgia's history, while it is the 3rd largest winter tornado outbreak since 1950. We're also currently running in the top 10-15 percentile wrt (inflation adjusted) tornado count and we may continue to see these numbers rise appreciably as our pattern becomes more conducive for severe weather after the 20th...

torgraph-big.png
 
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