RollTide18
Member
Looks like the same areas that were affected in January as well (correct me if I'm wrong) not good
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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
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Looks like the same areas that were affected in January as well (correct me if I'm wrong) not good
Stormlover
Member
sweet pic to wake up to
RollTide18
Member
sweet pic to wake up to
GFS supporting my "Winter ending with a bang" theory lol
LA, MS, AL, GA, FL highest risk. Northern SC into parts of NC too.
It's too far out to pin point, but it looks more potent.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
GFS was very active. March gonna come in like a lion
olhausen
Member
This is winter giving us the middle finger.
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olhausen
Member
To bad it's way out there in never never land
Record high already set
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah pcbjr, as I've been mentioning for a week or so, this is far more likely to be a big ticket severe wx event than snow except for the Appalachians if at all. I know its still "x" number of hours out however, it's really a matter of when, not if a huge storm like this is going to show up given the wave packet being generated
Yeah pcbjr, as I've been mentioning for a week or so, this is far more likely to be a big ticket severe wx event than snow except for the Appalachians if at all. I know its still "x" number of hours out however, it's really a matter of when, not if a huge storm like this is going to show up given the wave packet being generated from this MJO pulse in the central pacific...
Yeah pcbjr, as I've been mentioning for a week or so, this is far more likely to be a big ticket severe wx event than snow except for the Appalachians if at all. I know its still "x" number of hours out however, it's really a matter of when, not if a huge storm like this is going to show up given the wave packet being generated from this MJO pulse in the central pacific...
It looks to bring cold air behind it, the 26th fantasy storm, could set the stage for a miracle March! But we've seen this fantasy cold look all winter, only not to happen!To bad it's way out there in never never land
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I wouldn't be surprised to have one more good winter storm this winter with the way our weather seems to be one of extremes these days. Your know, the pendulum theory of going from one extreme to the other with it being so warm like today to a good winter storm. But I think going to the extreme solution of a big severe outbreak is possible and probably more likely, too. We have had more severe chances than winter storm chances this winter, so no sense in thinking that won't cotinue. Seems we have been in a pattern in the Triangle of every other decade being sucky for winter weather since the 90s. The 90s sucked overall, 2000 to 2010 was decent, and so far this decade has been bad overall. We have had a couple of big storms, but it seems now we usually get one big storm in winter or hardly anything at all.
pcbjr
Member
Oh, I agree - this has spring/severe written all over it. I'm curious as to any later, possible, after effect on upper air winds, and whether such a low might, after it has tracked NE, however temporarily then drain cold down from up north (sort of a "triggering mechanism"). I'm seeing suggestions of that, but am seeking your thoughts! Thanks and Best! Phil
Edit - If it's a "dumb" question, be kind! LOL
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No, it's a very legitimate question... There should be much cooler air in the wake of this storm and if it intensifies very rapidly and takes just the right track, I guess we really couldn't rule out some token flakes and/or minor wintry weather outside the Appalachians.
Thereafter, the pattern looks conducive-very conducive once again for more severe weather in the southeastern US and/or southern plains w/ a big trough digging into the southwestern US, SER, and a very strong subtropical jet.
I agree that there will be severe wx, as of right now there could be a transition over to snow for the APPs. If the phase occurs further south, this will put south of the APPs (including Piedmont regions) in play of snowfall.
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pcbjr
Member
Webb- Thanks!
My new project is to study and learn about short term upper air dynamics; I've got some facets of weather "in the bag" but I keep realizing how much more I need to learn!
Thanks so much for being part of this place and helping out! I truly mean that!
Phil
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, the overall pattern even after this storm moves by, looks pretty dang good for severe weather in the southern tier (obviously details will vary)... I definitely can't recall too many instances where I've seen a 100+ knot subtropical jet streak being progged on both the European and GFS ensemble suites this far out... It's almost that time of the year again.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
#agreement.
I'm not trying to hype this up or anything but wow that's a darn impressive jet streak especially for both the Euro and GFS ensemble means this far in advance, you're just asking for trouble w/ a 100-125+ STJ streak over the southern plains near the beginning of March
whatalife
Moderator
Hype or not hype...Things look to be very active w/this upcoming severe threat...
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Oh yeah, sure enough with a fast moving jet like that will stir up some significant weather. Last time I checked, the jet will have a split flow, slowing down the jet down to 100+kts rather than a fast flowing jet at 150+kts crashing into the west. Late this month into March will be very interesting, severe weather wise and winter weather wise.
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