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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Jon said:
Thought the run would be a bit better, looks like we'll have to watch the light moisture ride the 850mb 0c line throughout the event and enjoy our cool rain. What winter?


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FIXED LOL
 
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Jon said:
Yep this storm never slowed down enough, only when it spun around on the west coast for a couple of runs...borderline 850mb temps with moisture moving in from 12-18z isn't going to work.


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Looked like for a second the initial energy was going to half-way try and get into the Northern Branch and then leave a robust piece to possibly cut back off before instead of shearing.

Broke my heart to see it was just a good looking frame and then by the next, the result was imminent. I'm not confident in this at all anymore. I was hoping something would have slowed/left behind to get the Northern fringes of precip at least.
 
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pcbjr said:
levity and music - we need it! makes weather and other things taste better :confused:
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How about another one bites the dust!? Perfect for this storm and winter!
 
Probably worth mentioning the GFS has been trending slower & deeper w/ this negatively tilted cut off upper level trough on the front edge of an oncoming wave packet in the past few days. Yikes...
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Webberweather53 said:
Probably worth mentioning the GFS has been trending slower & deeper w/ this negatively tilted cut off upper level trough on the front edge of an oncoming wave packet in the past few days. Yikes...
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Ouch and you continue to rightfully scare me! Thanks Webb - spot on as always.
Now - please go listen to some music - we've got a bad moon on the rise - Best, Phil
 
And there's the major EC storm showing up again. The two pieces phases (one in northern stream and another in southern stream) and that's what is creating this major storm. The two pieces will be very important to watch. If the phase occurs further south, look out!

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That is the time period of when the PAC jet has a split flow. It will be very warm before this EC storm occurs, if it does occur. If the phase occurs further south, this storm will be an EC snowstorm. It actually does turn into a snowstorm on the back side. Looks like maybe near blizzard conditions for KY, E TN, and western NC.

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SnowHusky said:
That is the time period of when the PAC jet has a split flow. It will be very warm before this EC storm occurs, if it does occur. If the phase occurs further south, this storm will be an EC snowstorm. It actually does turn into a snowstorm on the back side. Looks like maybe near blizzard conditions for KY, E TN, and western NC.

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hope you're right - but cold is illusory and fleeting, at best - i'll give you 10 to 1 on wicked
 
pcbjr said:
hope you're right - but cold is illusory and fleeting, at best - i'll give you 10 to 1 on wicked
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What could possibly go wrong with a Feb 24-26th storm in this winter!? That's already rain on the models!?
 
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