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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Webberweather53 said:
Thanks! To briefly summarize the main points from what I just said...
a) The QBO and Indonesian convective anomalies are coupled, and their interactions should be viewed as such instead of cause-and-effect
b) The observed higher than normal Indonesian convection is primarily due to ENSO, but the westerly QBO is significantly contributing.
c) The MJO initiated by the recent sudden stratospheric warming event may have jump started a series of processes and reactions that could cascade into completely disintegrating the above normal Indonesian convection that's been observed for most of this winter. We really need to closely monitor these changes going forward, because we're at the time of the year where ENSO is more responsive to higher frequency variability like the MJO. The point I'm really trying to get across here is that the MJO tends to have the most significant effect on ENSO at this time of the year, in and around the Northern Hemisphere's spring equinox.
Click to expand...
changes!
Thanks, Webb!
 
SnowHusky said:
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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Click to expand...
SnowHusky said:
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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Click to expand...
 
SnowHusky said:
If the QBO is the most driver and causing complications with everything else and when this troposphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes this will release the complications and make the pattern flip into more of a favorable El Nino pattern. When this pattern change occurs, I do think that the east won't be experiencing much above-normal temps late this month into early March. The reason why I think this is becuase it's a transition. So, with the east being so warm for the most of this winter, the cold we've been wanting all winter will make an appearance late this month into early March. It may not be 30+ degrees below normal or nothing like that though. But we'll just have to see about that cause there are complications going on with the pattern. The temp anomalies may not be that accurate right now but they will be once the pattern transition occurs or shorty before it occurs.

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Click to expand...

Indonesia is concerning to me, should be to most all in USA going forward next 6 weeks.


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