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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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GaWx said:
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
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Please!!!!! I can't handle another warm winter...LOL!


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GaWx said:
3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
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Wasn't the horrible winter of 2012-13 following a weak Nina ?
 
Still 70 here. I have to admit it feels great this evening. Some of my running friends ran the Mississippi River marathon today and they had a horrible time as temps had risen into the lower 80s in Greenville Ms. Sure glad I skipped that one this year
 
JLL1973 said:
Still 70 here. I have to admit it feels great this evening. Some of my running friends ran the Mississippi River marathon today and they had a horrible time as temps had risen into the lower 80s in Greenville Ms. Sure glad I skipped that one this year
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Started out in a sweatshirt on my morning gallop at 6:45 @ 40º and by Noon we're over 80º
Hello Spring
 
GaWx said:
3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
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Mmmmmmm... Analogs!!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Wasn't the horrible winter of 2012-13 following a weak Nina ?
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How can it be 90 in Amarillo, and only 73 in ATL?? I mean, we are at the same latitude, we should have the same temps!? It's a mystery and how the hell do they get snow in 2 days and we never get snow? I don't understand?? :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
How can it be 90 in Amarillo, and only 73 in ATL?? I mean, we are at the same latitude, we should have the same temps!? It's a mystery and how the hell do they get snow in 2 days and we never get snow? I don't understand?? :(
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Oh how I'd love to go on a political rant on this one :confused:

but to keep peace -- ;)
 
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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GaWx said:
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
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Well, that doesn't really explain why those teleconnections behaved the way they did in 1951-52. I'm still trying to figure that out myself...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, that doesn't really explain why those teleconnections behaved the way they did in 1951-52. I'm still trying to figure that out myself...
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Regardless, that is definitely a good point you bring up larry, certainly worth researching into why the pattern that winter was so much different from other weak-moderate El Ninos following NINAs
 
Tarheel1 said:
Mmmmmmm... Analogs!!
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Well, Mack, at least I didn't harp on the analogs this winter other than when I thought this was going to be neutral negative ENSO rather than weak Niña and thus emphasized much better than normal (little over 50%) chance for a major ZR at ATL! You got a one winter break and that's it, buddy!

The bad or good news depending on how you look at it is this means JB would have a great excuse to go cold and snowy winter again. He is likely going to go cold, regardless, based on his hints about getting closer to solar minimum and just because that's what he likes to do.
 
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