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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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just little colder
 
Storm5 said:
man that was a close run for our NC folks. if I lived there I sure wouldn't give up yet

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As I have stated before...Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades...LOL! Just ask the #falcons. LOL


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I'm not really feeling it, but I still think the Carolinas might have a shot at a decent little event as long as we don't see an early phase (like what the Euro suggests). Who knows who though. Whoever gets that stripe of snow might see up to 3 inches outside the mountains.

Maybe there's a late phase but its either going to be early or no phase most likely.
 
Still watching dates through 22nd-24th or so. This depends on timing and rather or not these two pieces will phase or not (this is not the 15th-16th system). It also depends on the tracks of systems. The GFS is trying to get something organized from the Gulf. If the track of low is further west and if that piece comes down from the NW just right, there could be a phase. The piece that's NW would bring the colder temps.
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Webberweather53 said:
They changed the dataset to Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 from version 3b late last year, but my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) which was part of my research I presented @ AMS this past January, integrates about 25 SST & reanalysis datasets, quality control, and is available in near real-time is also very likely to end up showing a NINA when I update it... It may take longer than usual because I need to add CERA-20C to my 25 member suite of datasets.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media...-new-20th-century-climate-reanalysis-complete

Aside from the actual ONI values, I've also provided monthly NINO 3.4 SST values, inter-dataset variance, and rankings going back to 1865.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...nic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2017.txt

Here's the ENS ONI data broken down every 25 years...
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Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
 
GaWx said:
Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
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I need you to move your data set exactly 5 hours down I-75! LOL
 
GaWx said:
Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
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Well Larry...I guess I'm all in for next winter if it is a weak to mod Niño...


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whatalife said:
Well Larry...I guess I'm all in for next winter if it is a weak to mod Niño...


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3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
 
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GaWx said:
Just consider the current weak Nina winter as a potential sacrificial lamb to next winter in case it is a weak to mod Nino lol.
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been sacrificin' for a whole winter LOL
but I'll fatten up a calf for next ... and offer it to the gods of winter ... maybe :p
 
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
 
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