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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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NAM has the ULL a bit more north than GFS

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Some really good stuff in here this morning, I like reading about past weather events.
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...and I like reading about weather and learning, which is a plate-full this AM ... and dadgumit, it's not getting my lawn done ... LOL

keep it up, folks, to my neighbors' possible chagrin :p
 
Have gotten so many surprises historically with that lead finger of precip. Sucks it's too warm.
 
GaWx said:
I just realized that we officially just got a weak Nina:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Until I saw this, I didn't think we were going to have enough (5) trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 or colder to qualify for La nina. I was betting on neutral negative. That's why I was harping on neutral negative having had by far the largest # of major ZR's at ATL. Did they revise the trimonthlies colder recently?
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They changed the dataset to Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 from version 3b late last year, but my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) which was part of my research I presented @ AMS this past January, integrates about 25 SST & reanalysis datasets, quality control, and is available in near real-time is also very likely to end up showing a NINA when I update it... It may take longer than usual because I need to add CERA-20C to my 25 member suite of datasets.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media...-new-20th-century-climate-reanalysis-complete

Aside from the actual ONI values, I've also provided monthly NINO 3.4 SST values, inter-dataset variance, and rankings going back to 1865.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...nic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2017.txt

Here's the ENS ONI data broken down every 25 years...
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Yep, the only chance we had with this one is the vortex dumping to the SE early since there was no HP in place we would have likely relied on some sort of phase, but that would have to be a huge vortex coming down as seen on previous model runs that worked out...the ULL was also spinning on the west coast as a 4-5 contour for a while. A phase also would put a lot of the SE out of the picture anyway. This is just entirely too fast and there's not much to watch anymore, given the model runs tonight stay the same...but I'm not purposefully going to be up for them, lol. Next!
 
Jon said:
Yep, the only chance we had with this one is the vortex dumping to the SE early since there was no HP in place we would have likely relied on some sort of phase, but that would have to be a huge vortex coming down as seen on previous model runs that worked out...the ULL was also spinning on the west coast as a 4-5 contour for a while. A phase also would put a lot of the SE out of the picture anyway. This is just entirely too fast and there's not much to watch anymore, given the model runs tonight stay the same...but I'm not purposefully going to be up for them, lol. Next!
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Yeah, the ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS that did have precip/good track were warm for the most part. We got a few good runs of the GFS nailing the northern fringes, and that's about it. That never even had ensemble support back then.
 
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SnowHusky said:
I'm getting ready to write the 15th-16th system off. For one, it's not cold enough. 2) it's a weak disturbance, no enough QPF, even if there was snow, it would be light. Maybe a dusting up to 2". 3) it's a quick mover, the NS is helping to push this disturbance out quickly. Something will have to dramatically change for this to turn out to be a bigger event, which I have my doubts on that.

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What hurts is that the GFS new runs are much faster like the Euro had been earlier. They are all now ahead of any cold that was coming.
 
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SnowHusky said:
I'm getting ready to write the 15th-16th system off. For one, it's not cold enough. 2) it's a weak disturbance, no enough QPF, even if there was snow, it would be light. Maybe a dusting up to 2". 3) it's a quick mover, the NS is helping to push this disturbance out quickly. Something will have to dramatically change for this to turn out to be a bigger event, which I have my doubts on that.

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lol 2 inches is average for most of the southeast . wouldn't call that light at all

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Storm5 said:
lol 2 inches is average for most of the southeast . wouldn't call that light at all

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Light to mod. snow is how I should've put it. Even if the models were showing 2" for some, it wouldn't be that much cause it would melt at first.

Edit: yes, 2" is average but that's not heavy snowfall. 4-6+" is heavy snowfall. I don't think we're going to see that kind of snow if there will snow from this system.

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SnowHusky said:
Light to mod. snow is how I should've put it. Even if the models were showing 2" for some, it wouldn't be that much cause it would melt at first.

Edit: yes, 2" is average but that's not heavy snowfall. 4-6+" is heavy snowfall. I don't think we're going to see that kind of snow if there will snow from this system.

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you could reach the yearly average with a burst of heavy snow with the right system. So 2 inches could result from heavy snow

people have the most unrealistic expectations during the winter . Sure everyone would like a big snow . but hell this is the southeast, snow is rare and not guaranteed. This isn't Boston . I'd be thrilled to death to get 2 inches of snow every winter. Truth is , that's not gonna happen . People always complain , " Boston will jackpot" well no s*** of course they will they average 44 inches a year. People in the southeast forget this isn't the northeast. Snow Expectations are ridiculous and idiotic in southeast

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Storm5 said:
you could reach the yearly average with a burst of heavy snow with the right system. So 2 inches could result from heavy snow

people have the most unrealistic expectations during the winter . Sure everyone would like a big snow . but hell this is the southeast, snow is rare and not guaranteed. This isn't Boston . I'd be thrilled to death to get 2 inches of snow every winter. Truth is , that's not gonna happen . People always complain , " Boston will jackpot" well no s*** of course they will they average 44 inches a year. People in the southeast forget this isn't the northeast. Snow Expectations are ridiculous and idiotic in southeast

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I may have an opening for an advocate in my office ...:cool:
 
Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.
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so long as it's not blocking and keeping in place the heat migrating from Texas ... LOL
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.
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Yeah beat down the bermuda ridge. The humidity was awful last year.


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