• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
SnowHusky said:
Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Even strong El Ninos aren't that bad.
Strong NINOs like 1888-89, 1896-97, 1930-31, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, & even 1982-83 were pretty good wintry wx wise in much of the SE & Carolinas, 1997-98 was a only a smidge too warm, but very close to being a huge winter down here, the NC mountains got smashed by a massive snowstorm in January 1998... There was at least one (or more) big dogs in all of these aforementioned winters. 2006-07 was a weak El Nino winter btw.

Here are a few examples from these winters, I have yet to complete the entire archive so I'm missing a few storms, including a few good ones in NC from January 1966.

1888-89
February 21-22 1889

Raleigh: 10"

Chapel Hill: 10.5"

Southern Pines: 11"

Asheboro: 8"

Charlotte: 8"

Wilmington: 2"

February 11 1889

Charlotte: 0.5"

Raleigh: 0.3"

Wilmington: 0.2"

1896-97
December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
January 13-14 1897 NC Snowmap.png

January 27-28 1897 NC Snowmap.png


1930-31
December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png

1957-58
19580214-19580217-6.25.jpg

1972-73

January 7-9 1973 NC Snowmap.png

February 9-11 1973 NC Snowmap.png

1982-83
March 24-25 1983 NC snowstorm.gif
 
SnowHusky said:
Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I forgot to mention 1987-88, but that's another good strong El Nino example.

We actually had measurable snow here in central NC in early-mid November 1987.November 10-12 1987 NC Snowmap.png
Of course everyone is probably familiar w/ this bad boy in January 1988...
January 5-8 1988 Southern US snowstorm.jpg

accum.19880108.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even strong El Ninos aren't that bad.
Strong NINOs like 1888-89, 1896-97, 1930-31, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, & even 1982-83 were pretty good wintry wx wise in much of the SE & Carolinas, 1997-98 was a only a smidge too warm, but very close to being a huge winter down here, the NC mountains got smashed by a massive snowstorm in January 1998... There was at least one (or more) big dogs in all of these aforementioned winters. 2006-07 was a weak El Nino winter btw.
Click to expand...

Strong El Ninos aren't that bad, I agree, it depends on the teleconnections as well and timing of cold between weather systems.



Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I forgot to mention 1987-88, but that's another good strong El Nino example.

We actually had measurable snow here in central NC in early-mid November 1987.View attachment 97
Of course everyone is probably familiar w/ this bad boy in January 1988...
View attachment 98

accum.19880108.gif
Click to expand...

To clarify the 4" at ATL: That was almost pure sleet. Liq equiv was 1.25"!! there was basically the equiv water content of a foot of snow!
 
GaWx said:
You can also add 1969-70 and 1976-7 to the frigid E Pac centered based weak Nino group. 1976-7 is still the coldest ATL winter on record!
Click to expand...

Yep, and there were a few decent storms in those winters as well...

GaWx said:
To clarify the 4" at ATL: That was almost pure sleet. Liq equiv was 1.25"!! there was basically the equiv water content of a foot of snow!
Click to expand...

That's insane, but you think that's nuts 8" of pure sleet fell in Raleigh in February 1987 from this storm, liquid equivalent of 2 feet of snow!! I'd probably jump off a building if that happened lol. Although sleet is great and all, knowing how close I would have been to another March 1927, I would be really pissed
accum.frozen.19870217.gif
 
GaWx said:
The SE doesn't need El Nino of any kind to do well. Nobody said that. There was strong -AO/-NAO first half of that winter.
Click to expand...

I didn't say anyone here said that, I just used to think myself that you needed El Nino to have the best shot at Winter weather. Thanks.
 
RollTide18 said:
I didn't say anyone here said that, I just used to think myself that you needed El Nino to have the best shot at Winter weather. Thanks.
Click to expand...

OK, I got you. No problem. That's the best way to put it.

Here's how I put it based on ATL:

1. Best shot at cold winter: weak to mod Nino (true for all of SE)
2. For ATL: best shot at above avg snow. Nino in general but with best chance actually if Nino strong
3. Best shot at major ZR or IP ATL: neutral negative like we were in 2013-4
 
Well, if anyone still has hope, our ULL energy is now over California as of this morning. New data can influence the model runs later 18z/00z (maybe)...
6ql4Mnp.png
 
I just realized that we officially just got a weak Nina:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Until I saw this, I didn't think we were going to have enough (5) trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 or colder to qualify for La nina. I was betting on neutral negative. That's why I was harping on neutral negative having had by far the largest # of major ZR's/IP's at ATL. Did they revise the trimonthlies colder recently?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top