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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
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Good! The worst drought areas are still in moderate drought and have very low soil moisture! So we need a good wet and snowy Nino! Looks likely at this point!
 
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Working off makes most people a little rude.
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Sorry about that, I didn't mean to sound extremely negative or mad, but I mean we all want snow, but reality is that Montgomery probably won't see anymore Winter Weather this winter, but we'll see. Doesn't really hurt my feelings if we don't, I went from 2003-2007 without seeing any snow so I'll live lmao
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Kind of like "Support your team, win or lose".... Right? :)
 
MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
Click to expand...

Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
cd152.7.52.63.41.7.12.41.prcp.png

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
January 12-14 1912 NC snowmap.png

February 10-12 1912 NC snowmap.png

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
NC-SC Snowmap Feb 25-26 1914.jpg
February 24-26 1914 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
View attachment 82

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
View attachment 83

View attachment 84

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
View attachment 87
View attachment 86
Click to expand...

THIS^^^

Great stuff Eric...I'll take my chances w/an El Niño any winter...


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MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
Click to expand...

I'd gladly accept a weak to mod Nino. Actually, a weak to moderate one overall would give the best chance at a cold SE winter. 09-10 was very cold moderate. 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7 & 77-78 were all very cold weak to low end mod. Of those, 1884-5, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, 1963-4, & 2009-10 were all also very wintry. Also, 1977-8 had a big Feb winter storm in much of NC.

Edit: Nothing beats a weak to moderate Nino with -NAO and +PDO for cold chances.

One prediction I'll go ahead and make, regardless of ENSO, is that there will be many going for a cold and snowy E US winter just because that's what they do.
 
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GaWx said:
I'd gladly accept a weak to mod Nino. Actually, a weak to moderate one overall would give the best chance at a cold SE winter. 09-10 was very cold moderate. 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7 & 77-78 were all very cold weak to low end mod. Of those, 1884-5, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, 1963-4, & 2009-10 were all also very wintry. Also, 1977-8 had a big Feb winter storm in much of NC.

One prediction I'll go ahead and make, regardless of ENSO, is that there will be many going for a cold and snowy E US winter just because that's what they do.
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Larry, I know couple of forecasters off the top of my head that will do just that. They also busted badly over the last couple of winters.


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Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
Click to expand...

You can also add 1969-70 and 1976-7 to the frigid E Pac centered based weak Nino group. 1976-7 is still the coldest ATL winter on record!
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
View attachment 82

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
View attachment 83

View attachment 84

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
View attachment 87
View attachment 86
Click to expand...
Someone needs to sell their soul to get one of these to work out

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