accu35
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LolWhere the hell is "South Florida"?
Not anywhere around here, and ....
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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
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Okay, well, we're 5-6 days away from the 15th-16th system, if there will be one. There may not be one at all. If something is going to happen, it will give between now and 2-3 days before the time period. I'm not completely writing the 15th-16th time period off yet.
whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
My $$ is on the 20th .. book it, Dano ....
RollTide18
Member
I've been watching that time period. Nothing as happened at all that much this winter, so eventually the bottom is going to fall out. Check your DM BTW.
DGEX or CMC for the tie-breakerWonder how that will end...
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pcbjr
Member
Yes sir and YUP and it is -- I'm just waiting for folks to figure out where that time period is taking them -- my $$$ is on the time frame is a big bad biggie - not the sort we enjoy
We've had this discussion several times about the PAC being in a mess. The PAC is coming in hot, 150+kt winds. From looking at the GFS, after the 20th, the jet stream won't be coming in so hot. Plus, it will have a split flow and not a stream crashing into the west with 150+kt winds. The storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS and EPS will need to be watched. The GFS has been hinting at an east coast storm, EPS has been hinting at the storm as well, but it has it as a cutter. Depending on what the teleconnections look like and the MJO, there could be a major east coast storm. Will it be a snow storm, severe weather or both? can't have an answer for that right now. I do believe that the +PNA will continue. The NAO is trending negative around our possible storm during the 15th-16th and then the outlook is showing it trending back +. After the 20th or so, I think the NAO will tank negative.
*This is just for fun* but, if the GFS model continues to show this, I will get more serious about it.
What your looking at is a comparison at the blizzard of '93 up at H5 and the storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS up at H5 as well. This is fun to look at.
GFS storm signal, H5 map
Blizzard of '93 H5 map
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What your looking at is a comparison at the blizzard of '93 up at H5 and the storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS up at H5 as well. This is fun to look at.
GFS storm signal, H5 map
Blizzard of '93 H5 map
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pcbjr
Member
and just for purposes of discussion, surface temp comparisons, for example?*This is just for fun* but, if the GFS model continues to show this, I will get more serious about it.
What your looking at is a comparison at the blizzard of '93 up at H5 and the storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS up at H5 as well. This is fun to look at.
GFS storm signal, H5 map
Blizzard of '93 H5 map
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tonysc
Member
Coming back into Greenville this evening was the most beautiful sunset and in the eastern sky the beautiful full Snow Moon rising. The snow moon will be eclipsed later tonight. Just maybe it's lining up just right for us to get snow. I read in the Old Farmers Almanac back in the 70's, that snow more often, comes within 7 to 10 days following either a full or new moon.
It's not showing it will be that cold like the blizzard of '93. Just comparing H5 maps cause those look identical. On the 18z GFS, there's a HP over eastern Canada, put that HP about 50 miles south or so, that storm would be another historical winter storm.
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pcbjr
Member
Thanks! I like comparing every concurrent variable I can find and then, maybe, concluding a possibility ... but that's just me LOL
I like to do that too. I was just looking at the 850 temps and they are cold enough to support snow. The surface temps are in the 30s and 40s. This is something to watch if this look appears on future model runs. Can't wait for the 0z.
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pcbjr
Member
teach and learn .. but it's been now a 20 hour day this away - and I've learned it's not gonna snow or sleet or rain here tonight, so ....
!
RollTide18
Member
Time for the 0z to break our hearts
whatalife
Moderator
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