Any old country music fans here....It's a better looking mess than it was.
What a beautiful mess, what a beautiful mess I'm in Lol
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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
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What a beautiful mess, what a beautiful mess I'm in Lol
What's it gonna take to get that moisture a little further north in North GA ?
packfan98
Moderator
Canadian is about 12 hours slower than gfs.
it can look better and still be a messIt's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time"
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CMC looks good, the northern stream needs to come in at the same time the moisture does. If it was colder and if the moisture was further north on the CMC, there would be some nice snowfall amounts in there.
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Surface temps weren't too great, but that can be worked out with some timing changes.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If this doesn't phase, the moisture is playing hand and hand with the cold. If the moisture is further north, it's going to be warmer. If there isn't a well timed phase, the best bet is going to be a stripe of snow at the top of the precip shield. Who knows who is going to get it? In earlier runs Georgia had a stripe of snow, but my bet would be this "stripe" would be more likely in upstate SC and NC.
So for most of us, it's well timed phase or bust. It's a shame but there isn't enough snowpack to make things colder.
So for most of us, it's well timed phase or bust. It's a shame but there isn't enough snowpack to make things colder.
12z gefs leaves much to desire
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, sounds like the trend is positive, but we need it to keep trending that way to have a chance. Hope we get that NW trend like usual and it comes in colder. Didn't we need the northern stream to slow down with the last storm, too?
Yeah, there is a low, some slower, some faster.. but so warm for areas that do get precip.
I'm looking at the weeklies since I didn't look at them yesterday. The weekly has that system juicy during the 15th-16th. If the track of low is 50 miles south, that would be a big snowstorm. Maybe we'll see it that juicy on today's 12z Euro runs and with the right track.
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probem is a NW trend guarantees a warmer solution without a good cold source to the north
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WXinCanton
Member
This system has fail written all over it. Just my opinion. It goes way south and suppressed, plenty cold. It comes north and brings the QPF and it's to warm. I know it can be done without a nice HP to our north, but that is the exception not the rule. It's like threading two needles in regard to timing and LP track. Odds seem very low of this working out how we want. I truly hope I'm wrong!
RollTide18
Member
We're always threading the needle, it's the south. A bunch of factors have to come together for snow in the south, one wrong move can throw everything off.
I can see a narrow band of snow on the northern edge of the precipitation. That was showing through parts of SC a couple days ago on the GFS. I just feel like timing, without a full phase (that will hurt and help some) has a low chance of working out.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Aren't we in the Euro's wheelhouse on if whether a phase will happen or not?
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