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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Yeah, we're actually trending in the right direction at 500mb, the canonical progressive/NE bias in the NS on the GFS is becoming evident as it's starting to slow down this disturbance attached to a robust PV swinging down out of SE Canada. To get this to phase and amplify in a hurry instead of being sent to the proverbial shredder and OTS, need to see the northern stream slow down more and be to the NW of the shortwave in the southern branch, and the GFS has been trending that way.
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The only thing I don't like about this run, is that the deep cold air don't get in here until after the low is off the SE coast. If that's the case, we won't see much snow. That northern stream needs to tap in eariler. Other than that, not a bad run. It has been trending towards a phase.

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, we're actually trending in the right direction at 500mb, the canonical progressive/NE bias in the NS on the GFS is becoming evident as it's starting to slow down this disturbance attached to a robust PV swinging down out of SE Canada. To get this to phase and amplify in a hurry instead of being sent to the proverbial shredder and OTS, need to see the northern stream slow down more and be to the NW of the shortwave in the southern branch, and the GFS has been trending that way.
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Click to expand...
That's a fairly significant shift/trend in the NE......
 
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
 
Stormlover said:
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
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I like to compare past runs to look for trends. This 12z run was not in a mess IMO. This was a fairly good run! I think people are looking for that ULL to stay in fully intact, it's not going to stay fully intact. Without the phase, it's going to get sheard.

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hm, i think this is our little bugger / ukmet / no frames between 120-144

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Snowbird Bob has given up hyping anything to try to get more people to pay for his website. Maybe this is a good sign, lol
I am ALMOST Ready to throw in the Towel for anymore Winter Weather this Season. ALMOST?! Not, quite yet. It's not looking good as of right now. This Winter has been a joke. What can we do, We may just have to wait until next Season. Never know...mother nature has the last say though.
 
Wow Jon, I just saw that on precip maps. Very close for even down here in CAE. Moisture stays just South. That's something to watch.
 
Stormlover said:
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
Click to expand...
It's a better looking mess than it was. :)
 
The 850s are actually there in SC and east GA at 150 but the temps I'm not sure about. Don't think so but this was close to being a nice run.
 
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