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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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not even close. It's phase or bust.
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Oh, there's precip again alright at the surface more north in our states, but since we don't have a big enough cold press...its rain! Just too bad that it hasn't been cold enough really anywhere in NA this winter...
 
^ Lol is that 50 at RDU? I thought we were trending colder here!
 
It's not that big of a mess, it's actually closer at phasing on this run and the track of low is still good.

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Oh, there's precip again alright at the surface more north in our states, but since we don't have a big enough cold press...its rain! Just too bad that it hasn't been cold enough really anywhere in NA this winter...
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Except for out west, in the northeast, and in the Midwest in December !
 
We're back at a typical climo track already.

I think I underestimated the GFS, if we're back to this already after suppression, this is pretty much completely doomed with no phase. Without a cold mass that can be tapped into the end result of this is likely to end up being an inland runner.
 
Well I'll stay positive here.... it did track a little further north, precip shied further north.... up this way it was closer, in fact a nw trend might could work here.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We're back at a typical climo track already.

I think I underestimated the GFS, if we're back to this already after suppression, this is pretty much completely doomed with no phase. Without a cold mass that can be tapped into the end result of this is likely to end up being an inland runner.
Click to expand...

Actually looking back, it's close to a phase, closer than previous runs
 
It's going right to the Euro run of 12z and 0z. If thats the case then we need the nrn stream to come in a little slower and farther west
 
If this northern movement continues, then I can see places in the upper south going good
 
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