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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Ok I can see I opened up a can of worms that I should not have (and I'm gonna go back and delete my post). I don't want this to turn into a discussion in here. RC, packfan and Shawn all valid points.... I can think of some examples of all that were mentioned and I'll leave it at that. Again my apologies for opening this up... now back to the weather. Thanks :)
 
For instance, the 6z gfs has our temps plenty cold enough with our low in the golf, it just gets suppressed. Euro has our low and brings precip. There's a chance (albeit small)
 
Rain Cold said:
I would say that those are exceptions. Look, I don't mean to say that nobody has ever been run off or treated badly. That's just going to happen from time to time as long as forums like this exist. But the last couple of years, in particular, I've read a lot about how all the good posters have been run off. I just don't think that's the case as much as it is that they've found (for their benefit) better means of expression. Messages boards were the thing before social media and before people figured out they could make money, in some cases, for their services. That's all I'm saying. Again, I didn't mean to indicate that there were zero instances of pushing folks out.
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I agree on the social media aspect. Some have launched careers off weather forums like these or others. Twitter has opened a lot of doors and website creation (drag and drop, wysiwyg) type have become very common. Add that to being able to promote your Facebook with little money and you've got a good system in place if you know how to use it.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't get the whole people have been run away notion. How come none of us have been run away? Why is it only the really good posters or mets that have been run away? There are plenty of good posters still around. Why have they not been run off? I think the primary reason people leave because they think they can get their stuff in front of more people through other channels (and that's where they focus their efforts -- which there's nothing wrong with) as opposed to being run off. Maybe they're focusing on Twitter and FB, or maybe they launch a subscription service. My opinion is that those reasons are a lot more likely than somebody being run off. I mean think about it. If a good poster is being hounded by a jabroni, they can usually handle their own. If they can't, you would think the jabroni would be banned by a mod, which happens quite a bit. Anyway, that's my opinion.
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The same thing has happened on a banjo forum I frequent. Many of the professional players went to facebook. They either started their own artist page, or created their own facebook group.
 
I think we'd all love for this threat to pan out but we haven't gotten a run yet that gives many of us snow. Despite favorable indices. Realistically we may want to look at the next threat on the 22'nd if we want snow.


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Unless we luck out with a well timed phase the best bet is to see a gulf low a bit further south from the typical climo area, and a strip of snow on top of the precip area.
 
Is that our Bowling Ball?

gfs_z500_vort_us_6.png
 
Here's some entertainment while we wait... look at what they 06Z GFS Para is putting out for the 25th
c2eeeda25e6a0e33b9e4df6b83d78d7a.png



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Oh man, I'm glad I wasn't here this morning. Lol. Sounds like there was drama. Don't worry about me, I'm onto the 12z GFS right now.

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I just looked at the 0z EPS, it's very close at phasing over the SE. Maybe it will phase as we get closer to this time period. It's going to get sheard like that. Not unless the ULL will drop way down in the Gulf and the phase will occur off the SE coast.

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Hmmm, this could be close to a phase since the ULL is further north. The timing as to be just right. Comparing the H5 maps of 12z GFS and 0z EPS, they look identical and the EPS was close at having a phase.

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