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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Shawn said:
C5_Hy_Hm_KXUAEq12n_jpg_large.jpg
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Not only the effects here on Earth that causes the warmth. I think it has to do with solar minimum as well. This winter, there wasn't any solar minimum, meaning there was a lot of solar activity. I'm going to have a video soon talking about the solar minimum soon.

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Shawn said:
Yeah, a long time ago, Accuweather bought out the "Weather Model Animator" and turned it into their own thing. I do hope Ryan eventually gets his modeling links laid out better. Anyways, here is an example of the original weather model animator that accuweather have taken control of for their modeling page. At least, it used to be along these lines:

http://justin.wiscwx.com/
http://justin.wiscwx.com/
I have the original code/scripts to it and was thinking about setting something up with modeling from tidbits, wxcaster, noaa etc... but it's old now and I think I can do something better with new technologies out there.
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Yeah, that animator makes things quick and easy. I love that animator, makes it eaiser to come up with a forecast instead of clicking this and that trying to look at all the models. Lol.

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Folks,
We may be about to make history. The calendar week 2/19-25/2017 is forecasted by the GFS to have only 93 US home heating customer weighted gas home heating degree days, which would be a whopping 94 DD's below normal for that week!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

That is the normal for 4/11-17!! The 94 DD's below average would be the warmest anomaly for the US for ANY calendar week on that basis at least back to 1994! A word of caution, however. For some reason, there has in recent years been about a 10 or so bias too low with these forecasts. So, if that bias verifies, the actual DD's may "only" end up around 84 below normal for that week. Even that would be the normal for 4/5-11 and the warmest anomaly since the 87 below normal DD anomaly of 1/6-12/2007!

I plan to update this around this time next week to see what ends up verifying for this week. Exciting times even though this isn't what most of us want (I sure don't)!

To clarify, this wouldn't necessarily be the warmest in the SE, alone, since it is nationally based though it would be quite warm in the SE.
 
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GaWx said:
Folks,
We may be about to make history. The calendar week 2/19-25/2017 is forecasted by the GFS to have only 93 US home heating customer weighted gas home heating degree days, which would be a whopping 94 DD's below normal for that week!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

That is the normal for 4/11-17!! The 94 DD's below average would be the warmest anomaly for the US for ANY calendar week on that basis at least back to 1994! A word of caution, however. For some reason, there has in recent years been about a 10 or so bias too low with these forecasts. So, if that bias verifies, the actual DD's may "only" end up around 84 below normal for that week. Even that would be the normal for 4/5-11 and the warmest anomaly since the 87 below normal DD anomaly of 1/6-12/2007!

I plan to update this around this time next week to see what ends up verifying for this week. Exciting times even though this isn't what most of us want (I sure don't)!
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My gas bill appreciates this
 
Further to my above post, the 43 forecasted gas weighted HDD's for the south Atlantic states would be the normal for 4/22-28!! It could possibly be the largest negative CDD anomaly at least since 1994 for that area, alone, although it would take forever to verify that, which I won't do. However, I did peak at 1/6-12/2007 for the S Atlantic states and the current week's forecast anomaly would be warmer by a pretty good margin!
 
GaWx said:
Further to my above post, the 43 forecasted gas weighted HDD's for the south Atlantic states would be the normal for 4/22-28!! It could possibly be the largest negative CDD anomaly at least since 1994 for that area, alone, although it would take forever to verify that, which I won't do. However, I did peak at 1/6-12/2007 for the S Atlantic states and the current week's forecast would be warmer by a pretty good margin!
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in other words - summer .... (????)
Pretty good bet

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
 
I see the gfs is shifting northwest with the low Friday.....it doesn't just happen to us

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I don't think I have ever cut my grass in February but I think I may have to this weekend.


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Storm5 said:
After the article you sent me I hope your mower breaks and your grass is four feet high ......
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It's just another shark eating another shark...Phil should be more concerned then you considering it happened off the coast of Florida...LOL!


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whatalife said:
It's just another shark eating another shark...Phil should be more concerned then you considering it happened off the coast of Florida...LOL!


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i wish i knew what the heck it is you're talking about and what concerns i should have ... o_O!!!!!
 
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