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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
Today all the early season flowers/trees just exploded, finally
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Brad, is that you??

Seriously on Feb tip, we always have one cold day to mess up a good warm spell! High of 30 today low about 15, then Monday starts two weeks of mid 50s!
I’m rooting hard for yalls snowy coastal! Reel it in!!⛄️🦀
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah just a reflective look at the most, argues for brief/transient colder circulation patterns
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Yep it seems like for us to get really cold we need the strat pv really anywhere but there.

Strat vs 500 since 2019hxP0vQEP7l.png
tPkOY2Pu3C.png

Adding the gefs toogfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (4).png

We have really settled into this global base state in the cold seasin of urals ridge, weak E Asia low, npac ridge, WC trough, broad + height anoms in eastern Noam. About the best recipe for Eastern US snow pain as you can get

All of these composites really match up to MC WP mjo forcing
 
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Will we ever believe the weeklies again?

2nd week in March blocking returns as does the aleutian low. Below normal temps is welcome as long as we can get it.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-mslp_anom_7day-1708041600-1708646400-1711065600-20-2.gif
 
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KyloG said:
Will we ever believe the weeklies again?

2nd week in March blocking returns as does the aleutian low. Below normal temps is welcome as long as we can get it.

View attachment 146654
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If that’s right and the model is actually correct, there would be some brutally cold air coming into the plains and east coast starting 6-10 days out from now?
 
KyloG said:
Will we ever believe the weeklies again?

2nd week in March blocking returns as does the aleutian low. Below normal weather is welcome as long as we can get it.

View attachment 146654
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I would absolutely believe the depiction of below normal temps being shown mid March through April. It's in the winter where it's not reliable. I haven't figured out why that is, but I suspect that whatever is going on with the climate is creating a reality that is in conflict with the model algorithms. In other words, there's something going on in real life that the models are not properly accounting for in their longer range depictions when they try to show cold.

Like I said, I don't know what it is, but an adjustment needs to be made. Until that happens, it's usually a waste of time following 15+ day predictions of cold in the east. But when that's all you have, I get the interest in it.

Anyway, our string of crappy winters continues.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would absolutely believe the depiction of below normal temps being shown mid March through April. It's in the winter where it's not reliable. I haven't figured out why that is, but I suspect that whatever is going on with the climate is creating a reality that is in conflict with the model algorithms. In other words, there's something going on in real life that the models are not properly accounting for in their longer range depictions when they try to show cold.

Like I said, I don't know what it is, but an adjustment needs to be made. Until that happens, it's usually a waste of time following 15+ day predictions of cold in the east. But when that's all you have, I get the interest in it.

Anyway, our string of crappy winters continues.
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I said the same thing before and was called a clown here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would absolutely believe the depiction of below normal temps being shown mid March through April. It's in the winter where it's not reliable. I haven't figured out why that is, but I suspect that whatever is going on with the climate is creating a reality that is in conflict with the model algorithms. In other words, there's something going on in real life that the models are not properly accounting for in their longer range depictions when they try to show cold.

Like I said, I don't know what it is, but an adjustment needs to be made. Until that happens, it's usually a waste of time following 15+ day predictions of cold in the east. But when that's all you have, I get the interest in it.

Anyway, our string of crappy winters continues.
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Great point…. Any below average temps even if it verified March and April is useless as tits on a bore hog…. Personally I’m glad spring is fast approaching Got my eyes on a system ensembles agree end month… but it’s not a winter system .
 
Rain Cold said:
I would absolutely believe the depiction of below normal temps being shown mid March through April. It's in the winter where it's not reliable. I haven't figured out why that is, but I suspect that whatever is going on with the climate is creating a reality that is in conflict with the model algorithms. In other words, there's something going on in real life that the models are not properly accounting for in their longer range depictions when they try to show cold.

Like I said, I don't know what it is, but an adjustment needs to be made. Until that happens, it's usually a waste of time following 15+ day predictions of cold in the east. But when that's all you have, I get the interest in it.

Anyway, our string of crappy winters continues.
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I admit, I bought into them more this year simply because they were showing the pattern progression that you would expect to see especially when up until the last week or so, the pattern had progressed all winter basically right in line with the climo of a moderate to strong El Niño. What really sucks is that twice in the last two weeks, we’ve had the ingredients there for what could have been very memorable winter storms for the Carolinas… the timing has just ended up being too late on both. As someone commented the other day, if it were a winter where it wants to snow the timing would have been perfect and we’d be digging out. It’s going to be very frustrating tomorrow to look at satellite pictures of the low off the coast start bombing out and think what could have been if it could have come together about 18-20 hours earlier.
 
These computers can never be Trusted unless you live in New England or Mid Atlantic, just too much can and will go wrong South of there. Personally I blame the Apps mixed with the Atlantic, just too many things to work “around” for any storm here. Side note it must be so easy to be a Met in the Northeast that a 7yr old weenie with a Weatherbell Sub can do it. 6 days out “ohhh look guys Here comes moisture yep it’s gonna snow” Day 4 “yep I was right it’s still there ok 1 foot likely” Day 2 “I was wrong could be 2 feet just like last year” Day 1 “yep here it is have fun guys we will do it again next week”. So easy, No apps CAD to navigate, No issues ever with Cold air being in place , nothing …. Anyone can do it up there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
These computers can never be Trusted unless you live in New England or Mid Atlantic, just too much can and will go wrong South of there. Personally I blame the Apps mixed with the Atlantic, just too many things to work “around” for any storm here. Side note it must be so easy to be a Met in the Northeast that a 7yr old weenie with a Weatherbell Sub can do it. 6 days out “ohhh look guys Here comes moisture yep it’s gonna snow” Day 4 “yep I was right it’s still there ok 1 foot likely” Day 2 “I was wrong could be 2 feet just like last year” Day 1 “yep here it is have fun guys we will do it again next week”. So easy, No apps CAD to navigate, No issues ever with Cold air being in place , nothing …. Anyone can do it up there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I think it’s important to remember that models are only as good as the data that’s being fed into them, and I very much question how good the data is. A lot of that is because as many government agencies around the world deal with tightening budgets, you have to wonder if it’s forcing each respective meteorological agency to use less human gathered raw data and depend more on computers and satellites… just a theory.
 
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