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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
When it comes to getting a climo nina pattern in Feb with a southeast ridge in a La Niña, no problem. When it comes to getting a climo Nino pattern with a +PNA/NW can ridge/Aleutian low and jet that’s not crazy extended and -NAO, huge problem. Feb forecast from me looking like a major fail. Sorry guys. Looks like any last shot would be here for Feb, but this looks like something for the NE. otherwise, it’s cooked, it’s over. Maybe March can do something, but I’m moving on to spring by then View attachment 146415
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I'm not sure why @Webberweather53 or any other met is being singled out here, I think anyone worth their salt that looked at the data and understands ENSO climo thought February would evolve into a favorable eastern U.S. wintery pattern. Up until late January, things were going about as close to canonical Nino evolution as you could ever expect. I'll admit this did make me a bit nervous, but for no scientific reason, just seemed to me that at some point a wrench would be thrown into things and of course the wrench was the same one that has been thrown into basically every wintry pattern we've tracked over the past few years.

FWIW - you can certainly put me in that group as well that thought February would be rocking. Nothing to feel bad about, if anyone forecast February to unfold the way it has I sincerely want to see their scientific reasoning (and gut feelings don't count) so I can learn where all the rest of us went so wrong.

Heck, in early January I saw where the MJO was going and proclaimed to my colleagues we'd be in the 70s last week of the month and nailed it. Forecasting warmth is easy, for some reason you can take D15 warm spells to the bank if you have some halfway decent logic behind it. Cold has become impossible to predict, mainly because it's hard to accurately predict something that isn't happening anymore.
 
There are several of you guys on here that are excellent Mets. I get my info here before I would go anywhere else. I think you guys interpret the models and indices better as a team, than any channel or weather website I've ever seen. We are at the mercy of limited information, part of that is, it is just in God's hands. But isn't fun? Those are the surprises that make us keep looking 16 days out, or even 30 or 60days. It's that gold waiting to be found on the bedrock, where no one has looked before that has us watching every day. Today is only February 13th, we just saw how quickly the models shifted for Tennessee yesterday, it aint over until He says it's over. I like impossible odds, that makes the snow that much better! THE Blizzard of 93; we were already well in the 70's down here, in February, then voila, 15 to 18 inches of beautiful mid march snow! I guess even with all our billions of dollars of satellites, and computer models, the Farmer's almanac and old wives tales sometimes do just as good. But, not nearly so much entertainment.
 
MA got another FAB Feb thumper coming in this weekend. Whats 125 miles among friends


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NCSNOW said:
Ill be surprised if we see 1, maybe 2 events here max this spring. That's been another east of apps MIA past couple of years and I see no reason it wont continue. We are probably getting ready to dry out a lot as we head into spring
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Your talking about severe weather? I’m located in southwest Al, so I’m not sure how my area will do in severe season.
 
After an Inch last night, Sugar Mtn is up to about 47” on the year which is 5 or so inches above their seasonal average. Snow guns are in full force this evening with probably several more chances at some NW flow into the end of February.IMG_6807.jpeg
 
Is it just wishful thinking , or does it look like the 12k nam is trying to get a little northern stream interaction going at 84hr?
 
What's interesting is the convection in pacific is still around the dateline and that alone supports a colder pattern imo. The strong niño and -pdo, which definitely isn't niño like, isn't helping us. Keep in mind and this may not make any sense but the ao typically turns positive before a big SSW, which we have ongoing. I believe with that we should have one big cold blast sometime in March, but that's imo.
 
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