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Pattern February 2024

i don't think anybody is cold enough. notice how the 540 decameter thickness line is retreating west in tandem with the precipitation advancing. i think we need to see pretty drastic changes in the tilt of the trough (what's new) in order to nudge more lift into the colder areas that can support snow, and i don't think we're capable of those swings only 5 days out.

you can point to the new england bust today as "models don't have a handle" etc but let me remind you that the error was a flatter, more southern storm with slightly worse tilt.
 
by the end of this winter i'm going to sound like brad pitt's character in moneyball

but billy, surely we want suppression at this point, the northwest trends right?

gentlemen this is not a discussion. we are looking for systems that, don't make me say it

has better tilt

thank you

 
by the end of this winter i'm going to sound like brad pitt's character in moneyball

but billy, surely we want suppression at this point, the northwest trends right?

gentlemen this is not a discussion. we are looking for systems that, don't make me say it

has better tilt

thank you


You know I'm white flagging it once I cancel all of my model subscriptions except Weatherbell for the season. Here's to 2024-2025 lol
 
Better analogy is we need them to play like the Chiefs, instead we got stuck with the Panthers. The worst part is that we’ll get several really nice days late next week Then when March rolls around we get stuck with a bunch 45 degree wedges and rain
 
post it or it doesnt exist..lol
Had 2 separate snow storms NC. Sure will change . But here you go

500h_anom.conus.png



500h_anom.conus.png



500h_anom.conus.png
 
by the end of this winter i'm going to sound like brad pitt's character in moneyball

but billy, surely we want suppression at this point, the northwest trends right?

gentlemen this is not a discussion. we are looking for systems that, don't make me say it

has better tilt

thank you


I miss the days of seeing a big jacked negative tilted trough arguing with each other about how a 979 LP Can slam right into the base of the apps or cant
 
I got blanked last night With not even a flurry. I saw that Nashville and further south and East got big dollar size flakes and even thunder snow!
I was wondering if you were getting in on any of that snow. We missed out on it here too. Hopefully we get one more before Spring sets in.
 
When it comes to getting a climo nina pattern in Feb with a southeast ridge in a La Niña, no problem. When it comes to getting a climo Nino pattern with a +PNA/NW can ridge/Aleutian low and jet that’s not crazy extended and -NAO, huge problem. Feb forecast from me looking like a major fail. Sorry guys. Looks like any last shot would be here for Feb, but this looks like something for the NE. otherwise, it’s cooked, it’s over. Maybe March can do something, but I’m moving on to spring by then E0D85D9F-D2B0-43E6-9E05-C53D63304E5A.gif
 
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