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Pattern February 2024

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ma.png

????
 
LukeBarrette said:
sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Clipper snow is a way to score
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anafrontal hell :mad:

it's an ok look that other models hinted at, but i don't think it would go much further south. any more digging/better tilt would probably mean more warmth for SE. let me put it this way in terms of my location- if this trended towards more precip i think it would be a "me" storm and not a "yall" storm.

cut off as some models hinted at is another way to skin the cat but has skinnier margin for error and you'd be working with a stale cold air mass beginning to modify.

not promising as of now but i mean there is a southern vort and cold air i still think the window beats monitoring
 
Marksnownosnow said:
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Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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Southern Mid-Atlantic is not included in this conversation ?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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Ok. Perhaps you didn't see what thread your were in?
 
NCSNOW said:
If you are thinking about punting winter away, like I did yesterday. Whatever you do, don't go look at the 0Z CFS for March. The "Delayed but not Denied" quote has big legs to stand on.
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I hope CFS has a clue “it usually don’t “ Alan Huffman had nothing encouraging to say about the rest of the way in this morning. Alan below.

With this the forecast look on 2/28, it would take several days at least to flip this pattern colder which takes us well into the 1st week of March. While snow in March in the Southeast/mid-Atlantic is certainly not impossible it is not super common either and with this look to start March it may be time to declare winter over (as far as chances for any widespread winter storms) for the Southeast at least and even perhaps the mid-Atlantic.
The weeklies which have performed below par this winter, do show a mostly mild look in week 3. The GEFS-extended may have the most realistic look.


For now, until we see a colder look in the day 14-16 ensembles and see those push forward, I think we should favor a mild/warmer than normal pattern for the Central/East through at least the 1st half of March. Severe weather season is already approaching.


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