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Pattern February 2024

despite what the pity party would like you to believe, we're not far off from at least a marginal event. i think i'll tone it down some though, i think people are probably tired of the "wahh we are so close" genre of posts. horses and hand grenades, etc
I'm with you on both ends. That didn't sound right. It's close, it's been close, we're always close, it's time to put up or shut up though haha.
 
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
The way that TPV has refused to follow the models east you would think there was a strong WAR that’s effecting things, but that hasn’t been an issue this year. One of the things that’s a bit aggravating is that you can see we will still be prone to a lot of CAD, so we can probably keep looking forward to some 45 degree rains until April
 
Hopefully we get some truthful trends in the coming days. GEFS did have more of a anafrontal look to it with a few flakes on the backend.


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Yep. Definitely some differences between the 2 ens. CMCE with a slightly slower southern wave, better tilt of the northern stream that dives in, and a more dominant feature around the NE that’s not overbearingly squashing anything 3B49CF2A-6762-4057-B02E-CBAEA1AA6B8B.png
GEFS is straight up frontal, dominant feature (TPV near the lakes, southern wave doesn’t hold back and gets squashed). Hopefully we can speed up the TPV/slow down the southern wave and play with the northern stream some perhaps cut something off. some of those CMC members are hard to unsee, about 20% of them produce decent-big snow for NC with a ULL/coastal low, but it’s not many members that do it 9D816465-38F2-472E-829D-12FC39BEDED1.png
 
It's definitely interesting but it looks like basically 3-4 members skewed the mean. If the EPS were to trend this way it would peak my interest a tad.
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Ens 17 would be Raleigh’s biggest snow in years… that’s crazy lol
 
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