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Pattern February 2024

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Nothing here screams the "February pattern that favors cold and snow" we've heard about since December.
 
tennessee storm said:
Clover and other types wild grass already starting thick up… mowing is just around the corner
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clover, chickweed, and henbit are winter weeds. Nothing new for them to be showing up. They do pop more when there are 60-degree days in the winter
 
1300m said:
For years now, we've seen a tendency for the TPV to not fully slide eastward under Greenland blocking when we've had opportunities for it to. If that TPV doesn't fully come under the block and into favorable position in northern New England / southeastern Canada, which the EPS out to 2/19 still isn't showing a definitive signal of, it will likely wreck the pattern and either the Midwest and/or New England will be getting snow while we continue just like we have been. It is hard to break these kind of year-over-year tendencies.
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At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
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Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
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I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long range ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
 
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1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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Poles are moving ( magnetic north) computers are not adjusting far fetched but still possible. Second computer models are being over sampled or have a bias they put on certain Highs or Lows. Just some random idea , who really knows!
 
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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I started watching all that space weather ( Sun ) forecast. Have to say its pretty interesting stuff watching all those ejections, hoping we aint lined up dead square when they happen, which is a lot more than I thought.
Anyway the sun cycles flip every 11 years, we are at a max I believe the past couple, so there's a possibility.
Also a lot of geo thermic ( Iceland) activity has been taking place over this winter season, not to mention the heavy volume that occurs underneath the pacific and all oceans for that matter. All these things have to paly a role somewhat, somehow. To what degree I'm not sure. Their unpredictability will always be throwing a fly in the ointment not only for us, but all wx models as well.
 
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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don't have solutions but thank you for posting the evolutions, you've at least pinned down a common thread. i'm at a loss and the only thing i could reasonably think of are faulty sst assumptions in that area but that feels like a brittle argument
 
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