ILM wins 
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It seems like last couple threats have had awful timing. Cant time a wave in the southern stream without northern stream being jacked up. Feels like la nina.
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HugeSnowStick
Member
Not with a 546 line...
Here we go with another case of the thickness line means no snow. It’s different in certain situations, it’s not the rain/snow line.
Bro, look at my username. 1000-850mb / 850-700mb partial thicknesses are the way to go diagnosing ptype in these parts. 1000-500 thickness and 850 temps are poor mans ptype tools. Don't get me started on this lol.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
My professor is all about the 540 line it really pains me. You can get snow south of it and you can get sleet north of it.
HugeSnowStick
Member
Have at it, we can't even get flurries anymore. Bro.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
Talk about uncertainty
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
@Myfrotho704_
GEFS panels look a lot better, you agree?
GEFS panels look a lot better, you agree?
Much better mean than 12z feel like energy in northern stream trending west is a good thing. Would like to see a phase and roll the dice myself. But living in northern foothills is much better climo for phased events. I think for CLT east may cheer for more of an overrunning event. 
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Flotown
Member
alright peeps lets duscuss this mess tomorrow,anybody believe this tremendous se trend..??
The trend seems legit but I'd want to see the 0z runs before getting too deep into it.
Flotown
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NCSNOW
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Yes . Never saw EPS.
Good thing we don’t live at 500mb
The 546 dm thickness is the height difference between 1000-500mb level. The reason it isn't the best is because if you have a near-isothermal layer (temp near freezing from the surface to 500 mb) then the thickness can be greater than 540dm or even 546dm but the entire column could still be technically at or below freezing and supportive of snow.
1000-850mb is a better proxy because it is representative of the lower-layer of the atmopshere, while 850-700mb is representative of mid-levels (think warm noses). With lots of research behind it, the partial thickness nomogram research work done by Kermit Keeter et. al. has proven over the years to be a very effective method of precpitation type foreasting. 1000-850mb thickness is also effective for high temperature forecasting and is often referenced in NWS AFDs also.
Reference: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/constant-pressure-charts-thickness
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JLL1973
Member
Even if it does shift to include our area don’t expect any accumulations and temps look to be at or a little above freezing. Ground temps are also very warm as well