Pattern February 2024

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon looks like major suppression

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Icon looks like major suppression

Yeah, it shreds the Baja S/W.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Seems like having the western ridge flourish earlier on and not be so chopped up with energy, drops the Arctic hammer into the US.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

At least the western ridging is coming back. Something to make the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis look prettier

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That’s a favorable western trend. Hope it matters somewhere down the line

 

[Forevertothee]

I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 146173View attachment 146174

So ICON and Euro are showing arctic outbreak kind of stuff, but GFS has been way warmer? Is the GFS even trying to cave?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?

I don’t think people realize how crucial it is to get that PNA strength and positioning correct. We need a digging wave. Always have. It’s a thing of beauty when it finally clicks and you get the digging and the tilt correct with a jammed flow high pressure settled in out front.

 

[CaryWx]

I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?

overrunning is exactly where my mind went. Relying on a specifically well-timed phase is tough.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is probably the closest model to the look I would prefer, slowing the southern wave down a bit and getting the cold trough to dig, with a trailing high

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC is so close and so far at the same time. It’s a sick game

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Much pain

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is so close and so far at the same time. It’s a sick game

Yep. Closest to the solution I want. But then the big pacific low moves in, and what was some nice northern stream confluence and a trailing high, gets blasted by the pacific, also the energy digging in squashes the overall pattern even more initially

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

??

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

get a little something to pop after the initial frontal pass and the cold is scoured out. It’s tough. But close enough to watch I think for some areas

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

??View attachment 146190

If nothing else, that trailing energy behind the 18th system gives us something to keep an eye on too. Keep hope alive! Lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is def the closest to what we would want imo

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not so great timing

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC is def the closest to what we would want imo View attachment 146192

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