Pattern February 2024

[1300m]

Massive differences at H5 in the eastern Pacific even at 96hrs between the Euro and GFS.

 

[accu35]

Gfs really doesn’t like this first wave for wintry

 

[packfan98]

You gotta know when to hold em know when to fold emView attachment 146090

Any good takeaways? Better western ridge and cold air source centered further east?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS is just to progressive with the initial stuff that slides over the lakes, and gives us the initial Cold feed the euro has

 

[1300m]

Massive differences at H5 in the eastern Pacific even at 96hrs between the Euro and GFS.
View attachment 146091
View attachment 146092

FWIW the ICON is similar to the GFS and the CMC is decidedly in the Euro's camp. Based on the recent H5 skill scores and my own observations this winter, I'd lean towards the CMC/Euro being more correct but you never know.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We're in eight. Where it goes from here, it hasn't a clue.

 

[ILMRoss]

You gotta know when to hold em know when to fold emView attachment 146090

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

 

[LukeBarrette]

We toss

 

[1300m]

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

Root for the 12z Euro and EPS adjustments to continue.

 

[SD]

Any good takeaways? Better western ridge and cold air source centered further east?

It's a step toward the euro with a more suppressed height field and less WSW/SW wind at 850. It's obviously not the 12z euro but it at least gives that euro run some validation that we might be progressing in a better direction

 

[SD]

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

Root for the 12z Euro and EPS adjustments to continue.

^this

 

[SD]

I'm assuming this gfs being deeper with the trough across the upper Midwest isn't helping us either. Here are the 12z icon, cmc, euro vs the 18z gfs but I might just be nitpicking this to death which I shouldn't be

 

[accu35]

Some how don’t know how but 18z gefs has some snow member in the deep south for the wave

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Chazwin]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro View attachment 146098View attachment 146099View attachment 146100View attachment 146101

What exactly does it say about an op model when it’s own ensembles are more in line with another op model?

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 146102

fro, can you throw up the 12z for comparison? Thanks

 

[Myfrotho704_]

fro, can you throw up the 12z for comparison? Thanks

 

[Broken024]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro View attachment 146098View attachment 146099View attachment 146100View attachment 146101

Weird that shows snow on the bottom map. Most of the individual members are rain.

 

[Ethan80963]

Weird that shows snow on the bottom map. Most of the individual members are rain.

It’s definitely skewed the members that show snow are monsters