Pattern February 2024

[LukeBarrette]

View attachment 146003
Might see a phase this run

No cold

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Losing the Canadian

 

[POWERSTROKE]

If the models were wrong couple of days ago with the cold and snow chances, then why can’t they be wrong with the breaking down of the ridge out west and the warmer pattern that is showing now? I think winter is still not over by a long shot and I still think a lot of folks will get snow before spring. Cold will be back on the models soon, maybe not record breaking cold but cold enough.


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Snowman melting again

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gonna need that ridge out west to cooperate or it can’t dig enough for a phase to even matter unfortunately. Really needed that high to slide in with a quiet northern stream for even just a single day and this winter storm would still have legs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That bottled up black hole does nothing for us. I think that’s the most disappointing part. You would think something like this would have a chance around here. Maybe it still does idk

 

[Oconeexman]

That bottled up black hole does nothing for us. I think that’s the most disappointing part. You would think something like this would have a chance around here. Maybe it still does idk View attachment 146012

Back to the great lakes low wont let it snow crap. Still time for positive trends but faith is fading.

 

[CaryWx]

So it looks like the gfs has at least kinda/sorta lead the way here from a few days ago wrecking the pacific?

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

I think it's models as usual with a pattern change, a bit manic depressive....As long as we've been studying the 17th-19th storm, it seems as if it should have already happened. One thing that I noticed through the years, as with this pattern change, we get many different perspectives with each run, thus, MBY has shown snow, rain, no precip, warm and cold. This is normal M.O. for the models. Though right now it is discouraging, remember how many good snows we have gotten in MBY, that have held steady on the models as they actually occurred for 240plus hours( on any model). We have to at least be encouraged the pattern seems to be changing because of such model variance.

 

[KyloG]

I like the GEPS better here...GEFS/GFS was right about the pacific causing problems but colder makes more sense with that strong a -EPO

The PV positioning needs some work though.

 

[KyloG]

Yeah the pacific is a problem but that's a stout -epo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If the ridge at day 5-6 wasn’t so undercut and there wasn’t that much interaction in the PNW, after would look so much better, it affects our storm. We need more base to that ridge

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah the pacific is a problem but that's a stout -epo

View attachment 146020

Yeah. With the -EPO and the strong ridging over Alaska to go with the strong 50/50, it definitely suggests there should be a much colder look at the surface

 

[SD]

This is really the problem time period if the WC ridge stayed clean the wave coming down through the Prarie provinces digs refreshes the cold and feeds into the 50/50 low construct. Without it digging the flow across the conus gets zonal and the cold locks to the north waiting for the next wave. It also doesnt help that the nao pretty much has gone caput

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

IMO , To an untrained eye of mine….. this storm next weekend doesn’t need near as much to change or wishcasting to get a Solid Event for Most of NC/SC/VA I-85 N/W as the one we kept saying “ohhhh it’s close it’s close” from last weekend.


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[Myfrotho704_]

We need a UK like solution where the trough escapes east and we get another renewed cold feed

 

[KyloG]

IMO , To an untrained eye of mine….. this storm next weekend doesn’t need near as much to change or wishcasting to get a Solid Event for Most of NC/SC/VA I-85 N/W as the one we kept saying “ohhhh it’s close it’s close” from last weekend.


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Agreed...I also feel like the EPS at day 7 is probably the most right of any of the ensembles. And I feel like if the west coast ridge can trend a little better that could be enough. Of course if it gets washed out then it's threat over.

This isn't a bad setup...but in the years it snows we get snow out of these setups and the years we don't we screw it up.

 

[KyloG]

We need a UK like solution where the trough escapes east and we get another renewed cold feed View attachment 146023

Don't you have weathermodels still? UK goes out to 168 on that site and of course our favorite model...the KMA might have something.

I let my subsricption lapse...I was paying like $99/year but they are forcing me to pay $179 so I stopped. Was getting tired of paying money to track rain ...will just stick with weatherbell.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

We need a UK like solution where the trough escapes east and we get another renewed cold feed View attachment 146023

Back in the Day Matt East used to say UK was a good bet to show what EURO would on its next run or close. I think the closer we get Those two are truly in their wheelhouse Monday (5 days and In). I wonder what scores are for the 5 day or less period of these models vs 7-8 Day range, good or bad


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[SD]

It's interesting how so far the 12z op runs all handle the pac interaction different. The icon is the best to really drop arctic cold into the US after the 18th storm..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don't you have weathermodels still? UK goes out to 168 on that site and of course our favorite model...the KMA might have something.

I let my subsricption lapse...I was paying like $99/year but they are forcing me to pay $179 so I stopped. Was getting tired of paying money to track rain ...will just stick with weatherbell.

UKMET at D7, KMA still hasn’t loaded yet