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Pattern February 2024

ATLwxfan said:
The lack of cold air isn’t just a problem for the South. It was nearly 60 here in Chicago this week. We may get snow next week from clippers but our temps will still be AN and accumulations will be meager. The predicted northeast systems are trending north and will depend on dynamic cooling with crappy ratios. Minnesota is having an epic snow drought. It’s everywhere except the mountain west.


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Dang just noticed MSP is at 6-8" on the season and they average over 50" on the season.

snow_ytd_mw.png
 
If the models were wrong couple of days ago with the cold and snow chances, then why can’t they be wrong with the breaking down of the ridge out west and the warmer pattern that is showing now? I think winter is still not over by a long shot and I still think a lot of folks will get snow before spring. Cold will be back on the models soon, maybe not record breaking cold but cold enough.


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SD said:
That's a lot of activity on my eps snow plumes more than 12z yesterday
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Oh really? I haven’t looked at anything this morning to a Quick glance at this forum and said ok, this isn’t ruining my day with all this negativity I will give it a shot tonight


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BIG FROSTY said:
If the models were wrong couple of days ago with the cold and snow chances, then why can’t they be wrong with the breaking down of the ridge out west and the warmer pattern that is showing now? I think winter is still not over by a long shot and I still think a lot of folks will get snow before spring. Cold will be back on the models soon, maybe not record breaking cold but cold enough.


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Problem is the next "potential" is 2/18-20...after that all the globals agree on a Npac ridge developing and a big low gets parked over AK. Fortunately we still have blocking so it's not a torch but not one conducive to snow. So that puts us at the end of Feb...any sort of better pattern will take a few days to develop and at that point we are into the first week of March, at best,...climo says winter/snow is over for most outside the mtns/foothills after the first week of March.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8927200.png
 
For reference sake

Misc - Winter Weather Support Group

I know we say that for met winter but it can snow up until April with obviously reduced chances as we progress through March. I know some of you are further south than me but at least here in the NC we still have decent snow chances until March 15th or so. Thats more the date I hang it up...
southernwx.com southernwx.com

Wintry - Winter Discussion 2023/24

Ask and ye shall receive! Going to be another stinker for the SE. Probably end up +2 - +5 for D-M with AN precip. Why? Nino, plus whatever the background reason for the parade of wintertime -PNAs, cool upper-midwest patterns, routine MJO P3-6s, and neutral/+NAO regimes that we've been stuck...
southernwx.com

Pattern - Outside of the SE thread

For members who aren't directly in the SE to post
southernwx.com southernwx.com
 
KyloG said:
the power of 1050+ high dropping down...just need to fiddle with the pv pressing down so hard

View attachment 146002
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Yep, too much and it squashes everything. But we need the stength of the high to give us the cold. We need (somewhat) perfect timing.

Side note: I like the cut off (time range) for the Icon. as we've seen, anything past day 7 is crap.
 
SD said:
That day 5-6 trough ridge trough interaction out west makes me want to punch air. Clean it up and we are gold muck it up and the entire downstream pattern sucks
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Post this on your wall and punch it instead. Y ou may feel better


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FallsLake said:
Looks good. You would have to assume the cold would continue to press in.

Dew points at the same time:
View attachment 145999
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Not to pick on you Falls, you're a great long time poster on this forum. Just an opportunity to use as an example for those posting maps.
Please include the color scales when posting so that we can know exactly what the map is depicting. Sorry - not trying to derail the thread. Mods please remove if needed.
 
wow said:
ICON threatening with a huge phasing event. Or shreds the wave and nothing happens.
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Kind of like you noted a day or two ago, I think we just need that same northern stream press with the southern wave north into TX and then you have a powder keg situation. As modeled on the 12z ICON, that would probably have been suppressed IMO.
icon-all-namer-vort500_z500-8214400.png
 
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