Pattern February 2024

[NCSNOW]

We get to go to the
Big Dance( pattern)!

Prettiest Girl (wave)Said yes!

We are hoping the DJ (cold Air) shows up and if hes there, no doubt will play ou Favorite tunes and the pretty girl will be happy and dancing our tune.

But when get to the dance and the DJ is 12 hours late, our pretty girl is just gonna sit there and cry cold rain tears and tell us no more dates after tonight, she doesnt want to see us again and we will have to wait till next years dance(winter 2024) to ask , see if there is another pretty Girl.

Its all gonna come down to timing the cold air arrival at just the right time. If its early and sets up his stuff before or just in time. We good! Jury is gonna be out all week.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

The GEFS was wetter this run

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[Itryatgolf]

We have a -pdo, which isn't typical in niños. That probably has something to do with the no backloaded this winter. Also, the cold air going to Asia again isn't helping. I definitely can see a pretty cold March and even April evolving with rapid demise of niño. Also, the SSW ongoing. We will really need unreal timing to get a winter storm moving forward imo, which can and has happened

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Kendra Kent says we’re in Super El Niño territory but it has already reached its peak strength

 

[ILMRoss]

if this 2/18 is the guy then we need to see an uptick in the ensembles tonight

 

[Broken024]

I think this looks decent? Maybe one of you smart people can confirm?

 

[Stevo24]

if this 2/18 is the guy then we need to see an uptick in the ensembles tonight

I’d say more like Monday but we sure don’t need anything negative for sure.

 

[Forevertothee]

Dews at the end of the ICON in relation to the precip map just posted.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS looks worse with the Pacific.

 

[accu35]

Not gonna be good

 

[KyloG]

Geez we suck

 

[accu35]

Warmest gfs run yet. We definitely suck

 

[Stevo24]

Geez we suck

View attachment 145958

Someone smarter than me tell me what is happening to our great pattern. What’s with all the warm after weeks and even months of showing a good setup? Or is the GFS doing GFS things again.

 

[Snowfan]

That stupid shortwave clutter in the Pacific NW completely screwed up the connection from the AK ridge. If there was no clutter, it would have been something.

Geez we suck

View attachment 145958

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Canadian looks good for I-40 and North

 

[Ethan80963]

Canadian looks good for I-40 and North

What a run to run change that was… HP does still come in but way after precip had already started and too little too late for areas south of the NC/SC boarder

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

At least the bad trends start early nowadays instead of a last minute heartbreak

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Canadian looks good for I-40 and North

Verbatim south I-40 to I-85 In NC was a mixed bag with 2-6” amounts and 1/4” ice on top. South and East of there good bit of ICE but it laid a foot on I-40 and North into VA


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[Ethan80963]

I mean that was quite the run to run change. Last run was suppression city gulf coast rain at best. Temps in the upstate and NC hovering just below freezing the whole duration. This run was farther north hp was slow to move in however after some onset rain was a decent run for foothills/piedmont/mountains of nc. GFS was also a little bit of a jump makes you wonder if these are just normal model jumping. Obviously just some op runs but both being not great makes you wonder.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

I wouldn’t fret over the Op GFS especially this far out, need the Euro to keep the decent pattern look. When or if the Euro starts looking like the GFS then it’s time to fret. Lol


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